The writing's on the wall for Kiwi towns like Kaipara, Rotorua, Taupō, Gisborne, and towns in Hawke's Bay, Southland and the West Coast, according to a new report from the Maxim Institute.
All of these centres will face declining populations in the next 30 years, the report says.
In total, 44 out of New Zealand's 67 authorities will be hit. The decrease in population will mean the burden of paying for infrastructure will be placed on a shrinking base of ratepayers.
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Tokoroa is a prime example. It was once a booming forestry town in the '70s, with a population of more than 20,000. Now it is one of the many small towns across Aotearoa at risk of shrinking out of sight. Local businesses in Tokoroa could lose another one in five locals over the next 15 years.
"Over the next 30 years, New Zealand will see population decline in many regions that will pose major challenges to growth in places across the country. This represents a disruption on the scale of the 1980s reforms," says Maxim Institute CEO Alex Penk.
"We have an opportunity now to avoid the same kind of social and economic upheaval by helping communities to respond to what will be a reality in 10 election cycles."
However, Massey University Professor and demography expert Paul Spoonley has told Three's The Project mayors of these regions will struggle to turn around the demography in their regions.
"The reality is that towns like Gisborne are facing a decline in their population in the future," he says.
Mayors of these regions are fighting back, highlighting the advantages of living in their areas, including greater lifestyle appeal and job programmes.
The report is an "unnecessary, inaccurate, load of clutter coming from Wellington that we don't need because it's going to throw us off," says Clutha Mayor Bryan Cadagon.
"We've the ability to get population growth.
"You can come here, you can have the lifestyle, housing's affordable, the jobs are there - I love my lifestyle."
The Maxim Institute says we need to start planning for the future now.
"New Zealand needs to rethink its sole focus on economic growth, shifting to a framework that also empowers communities to meet both the economic and social needs of their populations in the midst of 'no growth or even decline,'" they say.
Newshub.
