Early summer weather to continue for much of New Zealand

  • 11/12/2017

It's dry, it's hot, and it's probably not changing any time soon.

That's the general message from NIWA's principal scientist in forecasting, Chris Brandolino, who told The AM Show there'd been record temperatures in the past week.

"We had 28.1 degC at Wellington Airport, the warmest December temperature on record," he said on Monday morning.

"We had 34.7 degC in Canterbury, which is so far the warmest summer temperature on record."

However with hot temperatures comes drought and Mr Brandolino revealed that even in this early stage of summer, there appears to be some sign of its emergence.

"Late last summer, NIWA issued the New Zealand Drought Monitor. It's something that helps measure where meteorological drought may be occurring, if it's occurring," he said.

"Right now, it's starting to develop over the lower part of the North Island; far southern Manawatu, Whanganui, far northern Wellington region we're seeing some evidence of that - that's just an indication of how dry it's been."

And Mr Brandolino admitted the short-term outlook isn't favourable for farmers hanging out for some rain.

"Over the next 10 to 14 days, rainfall - except for the lower South Island - is likely to be below normal."

Some areas will be cooler, though, and it's not as though the whole country will be without rain - but for some, the dryness is likely to continue.

"For the South Island, a big southerly will march its way north and bring some much-needed rain for Southland, and cooler temperatures as well," Mr Brandolino explained.

"Christchurch [has] another scorcher today, Blenheim as well - temperatures [will be] in the upper 20s near 30. Christchurch, by 9am if they get no rain, will have gone 46 consecutive days with dry weather.

"Wellington's [had dry weather for the last] 26 days, and if they get no rain in the next six days they'll get to 33 - that'll be a new record."

Strangely enough, it turns out the capital is the best place to spend the holiday season - with NIWA research showing that for the last 15 years, Wellington has not received a drop of rain on Christmas Day.

It's also only been raining on four of the last 30 Christmases there - drawing the envy of Aucklanders and Hamiltonians, who've had 11 wet Christmases in the years since 1986.

Mr Brandolino said while NIWA is yet to release its official outlook for Christmas Day, it's "looking favourable for much of New Zealand".

Newshub.