OPINION: The phones of National Party MPs will be running hot over the next 10 days as the three leadership contenders battle it out for the numbers to take the top job.
There are three confirmed camps: Camp Collins, Camp Adams and Camp Bridges, and two unconfirmed camps: Camp Joyce and Camp Mitchell.
In order to be chosen as leader, candidates must convince a majority of the 56 National Party MPs to back them in a vote - that's at least 29 supporters.
So, the question is, who has the numbers?
Our Newshub political reporters have nudged sources, staked out Opposition MPs and triangulated the data.
Based on the information we've gathered, these are our best guesses over who has support from who.
Like previous leadership battles, these numbers will change as support solidifies around leading contenders. We will continue updating this document as we get fresh information.
Team Amy Adams (20)
Amy Adams launched an impressive leadership bid when she showed up flanked by four colleagues willing to publicly demonstrate their support for her. She's socially liberal and fiscally true-blue.
Supported by:
Nikki Kaye
Maggie Barry
Chris Bishop
Tim Macindoe
Michael Woodhouse
Louise Upston
Bill English
Paula Bennett
Stuart Smith
Nick Smith
Nicky Wagner
Jacque Dean
Barbara Kuriger
Jo Hayes
Ian McKelvie
Nuk Korako
Andrew Falloon
Harete Hipango
Hamish Walker
Lawrence Yule
Team Simon Bridges (18)
Simon Bridges was second out the starting blocks. He said he represents a new generation while still having the experience as minister of a raft of portfolios.
Newshub believes he has a good deal of support and is neck and neck with Amy Adams.
Supported by:
Todd McClay
Sarah Dowie
Chris Penk
Paul Goldsmith
Jami-Lee Ross
Jonathan Coleman
Nathan Guy
David Bennett
Scott Simpson
Matt Doocey
Brett Hudson
Jonathan Young
Simon O’Connor
Andrew Bayly
Shane Reti
Alastair Scott
Denise Lee
Tim Van de Molen
Team Judith Collins (5)
Judith Collins swiftly announced she was the "strong and decisive" leader who could beat Jacinda Ardern. She's a fierce Opposition MP and loves a debate, but it looks like she'll need to knuckle down convincing her caucus if she wants their votes.
Supported by:
Kanwaljit Singh Bakshi
Melissa Lee
Simeon Brown
Jian Yang
Parmjeet Parmar
Team Mark Mitchell (4)
Mark Mitchell told Newshub earlier this week he's considering running but hasn't yet ruled himself in or out. He's been in Australia for his daughter's surf competition. He's got the lowest profile of any contender, but if Judith Collins gets knocked out of the competition, he could pick up her votes.
Supported by:
Alfred Ngaro
Erica Stanford
Todd Muller
Matt King
Team Steven Joyce (4)
On Wednesday, Steven Joyce said he was "considering" his position. He's an experienced party strategist, having run National's election campaigns since 2005. How serious his bid is anyone's question - he may be aiming to keep the front bench finance role more than he wants leadership.
Supported by:
Gerry Brownlee
Chris Finlayson
Anne Tolley
David Carter
Whether the job of deputy leader will also be contested will be up to the caucus to decide. Paula Bennett wants to keep the job, but unlike other parties, National has no enshrined process for the decision, so caucus will make the decision itself. That process is confidential, Newshub was told by the party's Whip Jami-Lee Ross.
ATTENTION: MPs who have been put in the wrong camp, feel free to call Acting Political Editor Lloyd Burr or email him at lloydburr@mediaworks.co.nz to have the record corrected.
