With the race on in the final day of election campaigning, 3 News went along for the ride on the National and Labour buses– and political editor Duncan Garner says National's bus might be about to lose a wheel.
John Key started his day by patting a dog, saying goodbye to the groupies and then hitting the road with his right-hand man Steven Joyce – the mastermind behind what has been called “Brand Key” - to spend the final day of the election campaign on a bus trip through the North Island.
This is the final push of a big campaign for Mr Key in a day marred by allegations of special treatment, after an Air New Zealand flight was diverted from Nelson to pick him up in New Plymouth.
His nemesis was also caught up in politics - Winston Peters’ candidacy was deemed illegal under the Incorporated Societies Act by rightwing website Kiwiblog.
Meanwhile Phil Goff spent the day winding his way through small towns on a last tour of the state owned assets up for sale under National.
But small towns meant low turnout and apart from the party faithful that message doesn't seem to have got through to voters - Labour has so far failed to close the 20 point gap with National.
At this late stage in the campaign, 3 News asked if there's anything the Labour leader would have done differently.
“Oh, another three weeks of campaigning - I think another three debates would have been just fine from my point of view," Mr Goff says.
Mr Goff, however, wouldn’t be drawn on what sort of vote he is hoping for tomorrow.
"You're not willing to put a number on that - I'm not putting a number on it," he says.
And it is one of Labour’s allies who poses the biggest threat to the party's core support: the Greens, who have already soaked up some of the softer Labour vote.
Leader Russel Norman is riding high on the eve of the election – the latest 3 News poll has his party polling at 12 percent.
At this stage the polls are suggesting it would be a remarkable boil over if National does not form the next Government, but Mr Key has been saying this race is tight. 3 News political editor Duncan Garner says there is chance that things could be closer than they seem, under the following scenario:
Just for the moment, assume that ACT’s John Banks doesn’t win Epsom, Peter Dunne doesn’t win Ohariu and Winston Peters makes it back –all very real scenarios.
If we take the five credible polls in the market and take the rolling average of those polls – something political journalist Colin James has done - National would have 62 seats.
Labour would get 43, New Zealand First 6, The Greens 15, Mana 1, and the Maori Party 4.
That would equal 62-60.
It doesn’t give National much of a buffer, especially if there is a late swing against them, and then the Maori party becomes the balance of power – the kingmaker.
The Maori Party has worked with National before, and today co-leader Pita Sharples said his party would talk to National first and try to form a John Key-led government again.
So tonight Mr Goff stands at the precipice, grittily determined to form the next government - but as he's well aware, it's a long way down.
• Live updates from the election campaign
• Where, why and how to vote
• Election policies explained
3 News
source: newshub archive
