The average house value has dropped more than $100,000 since the start of the year as the property market's downward trajectory continues.
The latest QV House Price Index, which was released on Tuesday, showed values fell further from January to November than they have in more than 15 years.
The data shows houses dropped in value by 2.9 percent nationally over the three months to the end of November – a slight improvement on the 3.9 percent quarterly reduction reported at the end of October.
The average value is now sitting at $945,568. But with one month to go until the start of 2023, that figure is now 10.2 percent lower, or $107,747 less in real dollar terms, than at the start of 2022.
The latest figures are a stark contrast to the same time last year, when the QV House Price Index showed values had climbed by an average of 25.5 percent from January to November 2021.
The closest comparable year to this one is 2008, amidst the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), when home values fell by an average of 9 percent nationally from January to November, and 9.6 percent total during the calendar year.
QV Chief Operating Officer David Nagel said it's been a "crazy couple of years in real estate" with massive growth followed by a significant correction.
"The last time we saw anything similar to this was after the GFC in 2008, but that was an entirely different kettle of fish to what we're going through right now," Nagel said.
"For one thing, the market was behaving in a generally orderly fashion until that point, with gradual, sustainable growth – whereas the growth we saw during the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic was far from gradual and sustainable.
"Home values increased by nearly 30 percent nationally in 2021. In 2022, they've fallen by less than half that much on average, so there's clearly still some way to go until we're back at pre-pandemic levels."
Nagel said while unemployment is still low, rising interest rates and high inflation pushing up the cost of living is going to make things tough for many - especially people with large mortgages who bought at the market's peak.
The largest house price drops of the main centres so far this year were Wellington which was down 18.7 percent, followed by Palmerston North down 14.5 percent and Hastings which was down 12.5 percent.
Auckland house prices also dropped by 12.2 percent while Napier saw a 12 percent drop and Dunedin was down 11.5 percent. Hamilton followed down 11.3 percent and Tauranga down 9.3 percent.
Marlborough, which was down 1.3 percent, New Plymouth down 2.2 percent and Christchurch, down 3.3 percent, were more resilient. But the real show stopper was Queenstown where house prices were up 5.4 percent - the only main centre still showing positive growth for the year.
Nagel said the latest figures aren't all doom and gloom for homeowners. Besides Hamilton (-4.4 percent) and Rotorua (-3.9 percent), all of the main urban centres showed less negative home value growth on average this month than last.
"The average rate of decline continues to slow in the lead-up to Christmas, despite the Reserve Bank's bumper rise in the Official Cash Rate last month," Nagel said.
"They've signalled further rises to look forward to next year, and with talk of a recession being bandied about now, we can expect further downward pressure on prices well into 2023 before we might eventually see the market bottom out later in the year."
Auckland
Home values have fallen by an average of 12.2 percent this year in Auckland with one month still to go.
The largest average declines this calendar year have occurred on the North Shore (-13.3 percent), in Auckland's central suburbs (-12.8 percent), and in Waitakere (-12.4 percent). As of 30 November 2022, Rodney (-7 percent) has experienced the smallest average decline in 2022.
QV's most recent figures show the monthly rate of decline has slowed overall in the lead-up to Christmas – from 0.8 percent in October to 0.5 percent in December – with the region's three-monthly rolling average also improving from a 4.4 percent decline in the October quarter to 3 percent in the November one.
Northland
Home values continue to fall throughout the Northland region in the lead-up to Christmas.
Residential property values fell by an average of 4.4 percent in the Kaipara District this quarter, with Whangarei and the Far North also experiencing declines of 1.9 percent and 1.5 percent respectively since August. For comparison, the national average decline this quarter was 2.9 percent.
With one month to go until the end of 2022, values are down 3.4 percent on average across the Northland region this calendar year, which is significantly better than the national average (-10.2 percent). The average home is valued at $743,277 in the Far North, $788,847 in Whangarei, and $874,328 in Kaipara.
Tauranga
Home values continue to decline in Tauranga, albeit at a slower rate as we head into summer.
The average home value fell 3.2 percent to $1,064,116 in the three months to the end of November, which is an improvement on the 5.8 percent decline recorded in the October quarter. With one month to go, the total decline this year to date is 9.3 percent on average, which is a little better than the national average decline of 10.2 percent.
Waikato
The Hamilton housing market's downward spiral deepened this quarter, with values declining by an average of 4.4 percent.
That figure is slightly worse than the quarterly decline of 3.9 percent reported in last month's QV House Price Index. The city's average house value is now $817,067, which is precisely 10 percent lower than the same time last year, and 11.3 percent lower than at the start of this calendar year.
Across the wider Waikato region, home values are down by an average of 6.9 percent in 2022 with one month to go. Besides Hamilton, the biggest declines have occurred in Otorohanga (-8.7 percent), Waikato District (-7.6 percent), and Waipa (-6 percent). Only Waitomo has defied this downward trend, recording 2.7 percent home value growth since January 1, 2022.
Rotorua
Rotorua may stop just short of posting a double-digit average home value decline for 2022.
With one month to go, the tourist town's average house value has declined by 9 percent to $680,572 since 1 January 2022. That includes an average drop of 3.9 percent in the November quarter, a slight increase on the 3.6 percent quarterly decline recorded in last month's QV House Price Index.
Taranaki
Taranaki's housing market has been more resilient than most in 2022.
Residential property values have fallen by an average of 2.2 percent since the start of this calendar year in New Plymouth, and by an average of 5 percent in South Taranaki, with Stratford District even posting a small gain of 1.1 percent on average. That compares to a 10.2 percent average home value drop nationally in the 11 months to the end of November 2022.
In the most recent quarter, values fell across the region by an average of just 0.4 percent, compared to a national average decline this quarter of 2.9 percent.
Hawke's Bay
Hawkes's Bay home values continue to slide into 2023.
WIth one month to go, regional residential property values have fallen by an average of 12.1 percent this calendar year. The largest declines have occurred in Hastings, where the average home has fallen by 12.5 percent to $806,908, and Napier, which is down 12 percent to $787,019.
The latest QV figures show this downward trend has eased somewhat in recent times, improving from an average decline in Napier and Hastings of 5.3 percent and 6 percent respectively during the October quarter, to a 3.9 percent average decline in both places this quarter.
Palmerston North
Palmerston North's average rate of home value decline has hit 14.5 percent for the 2022 calendar year with one month to go.
It follows 10 consecutive months of negative home value growth across the city, with the latest QV House Price Index showing the city's average home value has reduced by 4.4 percent in the November quarter to $657,707. This represents a marginal improvement on the 5.5 percent average decline reported for the October quarter.
Wellington
The downturn continues to deepen in Wellington, where home values declined by another 5.2 percent on average this quarter.
This year could not be much more different from last. The average home value increased by 25.5 percent last year to $1,086,421. Now it's down 18.7 percent to $883,897, with further declines looking like a sure bet with one month still to go in 2022.
Nelson
Nelson's residential property market continues to dip into Christmas.
According to the latest QV House Price Index, the city's average home value was $807,497 at the end of November 2022. That figure is 8.9 percent lower than at the start of the year, and 1.1 percent lower than three months ago – an improvement on the 3.4 percent decline recorded over the previous three-month period.
West Coast
The West Coast's housing market continues to hold its own as the end of the year draws nigh.
Residential property statistics continue to fluctuate month-to-month due to lower-than-usual sales volumes, with the latest QV House Price Index showing a 2.2 percent increase in average house price across the greater West Coast region in the November quarter. It follows a slight 0.8 percent decline in the October quarter.
At 1.7 percent positive home value growth for the calendar year, the West Coast remains the last region in Aotearoa-New Zealand still showing net positive growth in 2022. Whether or not it will end the year in the black remains to be seen once December's figures are finalised. As of the end of November, the average home value in Buller, Grey District, and Westland is $310,944, $372,926, and $421,428 respectively.
Canterbury
The Canterbury housing market's slow decline continues into summer.
The QV House Price Index for November shows residential property values have fallen back by an average of 1.1 percent this quarter – a slight improvement on the 1.7 percent average reduction throughout the October quarter – with the region's average annual growth rate still sitting positive at 1.1 percent.
With one month to go, Canterbury home values are down a relatively meagre 1.7 percent in 2022 compared to a national average decline of 10.2 percent. They remain in the black for 2022 in Hurunui (2.8 percent), Waimakariri (3.3 percent), Ashburton (4.8 percent), and Timaru (4.9 percent), with Christchurch (-3.3 percent) recording the region's biggest loss this year.
Property values in the Garden City recorded their first annual drop since June 2018, falling 0.7 percent since November last year to reach a new average of $757,845. It's the last of Aotearoa New Zealand's largest cities to do so.
Dunedin
Dunedin's residential property market looks set to end the year with a whimper rather than a bang, with home values declining 1.3 percent in the November quarter.
With one month to go, the city's negative rate of home value growth in 2022 stands in stark contrast to the 19.6 percent average growth it experienced throughout 2021. The latest QV House Price Index shows values have dropped by an average of 11.5 percent in the 11 months to the end of November, down from $725,853 to $642,286.
Queenstown
Queenstown is the exception to the rule once more.
It is the only one of Aotearoa New Zealand's main centres to show any positive home value growth this quarter – a relatively bullish 1 percent compared to a national average decline of 2.9 percent. It marks a small decline from the 2.9 percent growth QV reported for the three months ending 31 October 2022.
With one month to go, Queenstown home values are 5.4 percent higher on average than they were at the start of the year, up $87,836 to $1,708,918.
Invercargill
Residential property values continue their downward slide in Invercargill.
The QV House Price Index for November shows the average home value has reduced by 1.3 percent this quarter to $467,894. With one month to go in the calendar year, that figure is 3.9 percent lower or $18,821 less than at the start of 2022.
Provincial centres
With December's housing figures yet to be finalised, Westland (7.9 percent) and Mackenzie (6.7 percent) head a shrinking list of 16 districts across Aotearoa New Zealand that still have net positive home value growth to show for 2022, down from 21 districts at the end of last month. Kawerau (5.9 percent), Timaru (4.9 percent) and Ashburton (4.8 percent) round out the top five provincial centres, with Queenstown (5.4 percent) the only urban centre to show any positive home value growth this calendar year.
