The economic downturn has swung the housing market in favour of first home buyers, ANZ's chief economist says.
Although prices remained "pretty unaffordable by any metric", those looking to enter the market for the first time currently "have the power", Sharon Zollner told AM.
"They do have time on their side and a lot of choice… And it does appear that sellers are becoming a little bit more realistic about the price they can achieve," Zollner said.
With GDP figures due to be released next week to confirm whether New Zealand is still in a technical recession, Zollner said not every sector was struggling.
"The old saying is, 'In a recession, sell toilet paper.'"
As well as necessities like utilities and lawyers doing well, cheaper alternatives economists referred to as "inferior goods" were also benefiting - while luxuries and discretionary items struggled.
"So, beans rather than sausages or sausages rather than steak or, or perhaps steak at home rather than steak out, depending on where you sit on the income level," Zollner said.
She pointed to central Otago as being the most recession-proof region of the country, saying it was "bucking the trend somewhat" due to its winter tourism season and population growth.
"They basically moved seamlessly during COVID from the tourism boom to the housing and construction boom, back to the tourism boom again.
"So, I think they've had a very mild business cycle. Whereas some other parts of the economy, particularly parts with lower average incomes, have had a much wilder ride."
Stats NZ will release GDP figures for the March 2024 quarter on Thursday.
