A third of dairies in Christchurch have been broken into in the past year by criminals looking for cigarettes, a new study suggests.
But researchers are reluctant to blame the Government's ever-increasing tax take, as Acting Prime Minister Winston Peters has done, saying there have been no studies on the suspected link.
The Cancer Society interviewed dozens of dairy owners in Christchurch, the results were published in the New Zealand Medical Journal on Friday.
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They found two-thirds of operators are concerned about the security risk stocking tobacco brings, a similar number fear the potential loss of profits going smoke-free might bring.
Last year, a crime prevention group delivered a petition to Parliament arguing shopkeepers should be allowed to arm themselves.
Fourteen percent said they "could not survive" without selling smokes, as customers often buy other items with higher margins at the same time.
"Over half of those interviewed indicated they thought the profit [from cigarettes] was less than 10 percent, so that importance is suggested to come from associated purchases," Cancer Society's Martin Witt told Newshub.
Twenty percent of owners said more than half their revenue is generated by cigarette sales. Half said there would be no benefit to themselves if they gave up selling them.
There have been reports of a number of dairies going smoke-free, even if only briefly.
The study found 40 percent of dairy owners would be happy to quit the habit, but only if other dairies did too - the potential loss in sales is that huge, with nearly nine in 10 saying it was an important part of their business.
"The only way of achieving is a level playing field - fair play," said Mr Witt. "There are dairies that have gone smoke-free but they are a minority. The only way of effecting a level playing field is to introduce some form of licensing."
There was a mixed response to question on licencing, with concerns it would lead to extra costs or wouldn't make a difference to smoking rates. More than half said they weren't interested in giving up tobacco sales, but 18 percent said they'd rather not have to rely on it for an income.
The Government wants the country smokefree by 2025 - defined as fewer than 5 percent of adults smoking.
Blame criminals, not tax - Bridges
Earlier this week, Mr Peters said rising taxes were "leading to people being murdered and assaulted in our dairies", and agreed with Imperial Tobacco's claim there is a growing black market.
Opposition leader Simon Bridges said the excise tax - which has gone up every year since 2010 - wasn't to blame for the increase in robberies on dairies.
"He's making excuses for criminals. Ultimately he's the Prime Minister at the moment if he thinks the taxes are too high he should do something about it, but I doubt he will."
In the study, the researchers suggested the only evidence backing Mr Peters was anecdotal.
"At the time of carrying out this study, the increasing incidence of dairy burglaries was considered to justify exploration of security issues. While no published studies can be found to substantiate links between the rising cost of tobacco and its value as a black market commodity, the role of excise tax on the rising cost of tobacco has been documented."
Newshub.
