A public health expert is calling for New Zealand's COVID-19 data to distinguish cases within our communities from safely-quarantined cases who were intercepted at the border - a separation he suggests is imperative before lockdown can be lifted.
"There's a problem with the way the data [is] represented - you can't distinguish people who are just detected at the border and are safely quarantined, from the cases inside New Zealand. We've just got to clarify that," Otago University public health professor Dr Baker told The AM Show on Wednesday morning.
"The thing we can't have is community transmission. If we've got that, we need a very high level of containment to stop that virus."
Despite the latest figures defining just 2 percent of New Zealand's 1366 confirmed and probable cases as community transmission, Dr Baker isn't convinced.
"I can't tell from looking at the data. We still have some chains of transmission, we're still seeing some new cases inside New Zealand, so that's a critical thing we've got to stop," he told The AM Show.
He suggests that without categorically identifying how many cases are from within New Zealand's communities, we can't ascertain a clear picture to determine whether it's safe to move to a lower alert level.
"We have to distinguish cases inside New Zealand of community transmission, versus those just being detected at the airport.
"We'll keep getting cases every day for months - they'll just be returning New Zealanders who are tested, found to be positive at the borders and are quarantined. We have to separate them from cases in the community."
New Zealand was 'trailing' the virus - now, we're ahead of it
Despite his issue with the data representation, Dr Baker says New Zealand has done well to catch up to the virus.
"On this elimination path, we could be virus-free in the future if we all stick to the plan," he said.
"New Zealand was starting a long way behind Australia. Our testing was much less, our public health system had been really wound down over the last 20 years. We were really in trouble and desperately needed this lockdown period.
"We were basically in catch-up mode, we were trailing the virus - now I think we're ahead of it.
"We, and just a few countries around the world, are stopping this virus totally. You can imagine a future scenario where [Australasia is] virus-free and can start to trade again."
He warns New Zealanders to keep up their hand hygiene heading into the colder months, as respiratory viruses like COVID-19 are incredibly seasonal.
"These respiratory viruses peak in winter. They are notorious for this... that gives the virus a little more headway.
"The trouble is no one in the world is immune to this virus so it doesn't really matter what season you're in or where you are in the world. If the pandemic enters your country and it's not controlled as New Zealand is controlling it, then you're really in trouble in any season."
Four new deaths due to COVID-19 were announced on Tuesday, bringing New Zealand's death toll to nine. Six of the deaths were residents of the Rosewood Rest Home in Christchurch.
Seventeen new cases of COVID-19 were also announced, taking New Zealand's overall confirmed and probable case total to 1366.
Director-General of Health Dr Bloomfield confirmed 48 percent of New Zealand's cases have links to confirmed cases while 39 percent have a link to overseas travel. As aforementioned, just 2 percent are defined as community transmission.
