Modelling expert Professor Shaun Hendy says New Zealanders shouldn't be overly concerned by two new COVID-19 cases but warns it does show the ongoing risks Aotearoa faces.
Two new cases of the respiratory illness were recorded in New Zealand on Tuesday, the first after 24 days of no cases being reported. The two women had been in managed isolation in Auckland after arriving in the country from the United Kingdom but were allowed to leave last week upon compassionate grounds for a funeral.
A full plan was devised to make sure their trip to Wellington in a private vehicle was safe. They travelled to Wellington without meeting anyone else.
Neither of the women were tested before leaving the Auckland facility. One woman had symptoms, but she put that down to a pre-existing condition.
Both the Health Minister and Prime Minister have expressed disappointment the correct checks don't appear to have happened before the women left. The Government has since suspended compassionate exemptions to make the system is working as intended while Director-General of Health Dr Ashley Bloomfield is requiring anyone who gains an exemption to receive a negative test result before leaving.
Reacting to the news, Auckland University Professor Hendy told Newshub people shouldn't be overly concerned. He said the women's approved plan dealt with risks well.
"It would have been ideal had the two arrivals not left quarantine, but given the circumstances, it was a compassionate exemption from quarantine, most people would understand that. They seem to have managed the risks reasonably well," he said.
"People shouldn't be overly alarmed. Nonetheless, this does show the risks. We do expect to have people coming in through the border testing positive.
"We maybe expect one to two cases like this a week. It just shows us that the risks haven't gone completely to zero. We do have to remain vigilant and be cautious.
He said the risk of another outbreak is "never going to be zero".
"It sounds like the risks are low. They minimised their contact with other people. The journey they made sounds like it was a low-risk journey. So, I don't think people should be overly concerned."
He has confidence in our contact tracing capabilities, which were ramped up over lockdown.
Anyone who has symptoms should still go and be tested, Prof Hendy said.
"If you have got any symptoms at all, go and get a test. This particularly applies to people who maybe work at the airport or who have high-contact jobs.
"Getting a test is really important even if you have got really mild symptoms.
"Testing is not perfect. It can take a number of tests before people actually test positive, so we shouldn't be relying 100 percent on testing. Really we are relying on people minimising their contact with others and that quarantine being really effective."
Clinical psychologist Jacqui Maguire told Newshub that it's to be expected that some people may have become anxious upon hearing Tuesday's news.
"I think some New Zealanders will be disappointed, hoping we had it under control and that we were going to stay in the green. There will be a group of New Zealanders, potentially those that were experiencing anxiety through lockdown or who had pre-existing anxiety conditions, that may feel quite nervous, fearful hearing this news.
"Potentially there is anger at the border control measures. Some New Zealanders would say if we didn't leave anyone into the country, therefore we wouldn't have an issue.
"That's a tricky dilemma the Government has to manage."
But she said anxiety is natural.
"It's there to put us on alert when we are in the face of danger or a threat. COVID is a threat to the world, currently.
"It becomes a problem when it gets in the way, when it takes over your thinking, when you are catastrophising we are going to go back into lockdown. Some anxiety, yes, useful, use it to make sure you wash your hands and stay on alert, but taking over, then it becomes unhelpful."
Her advice for anyone struggling with anxiety is to take a big breath, stay calm, and think of the wider picture. She said to keep the news in perspective, especially that it came after 24 days of no cases, and to talk to someone if needed that won't hype the issue up.
Maguire also said it was the role of leaders, like the Prime Minister and Director-General of Health, to acknowledge these feelings and provide clear, transparent information.
