A disease modelling expert whose work has helped inform the Government's response to the pandemic is concerned about Auckland's imminent shift to level 2.
Shaun Hendy of research centre Te Punaha Matatini and the University of Auckland says Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and Director-General of Health Ashley Bloomfield are putting a lot of faith in the public health system to contain the growing cluster.
Eleven new cases were reported on Saturday, 10 definitively linked to the existing cluster, the origin of which remains unknown. Despite this, the city is set to shift from level 3 to level 2 at 11:59pm on Sunday.
"I think it's concerning," Dr Hendy told Newshub. "We're at far more risk than at the previous alert level moves, with the level of cases still out there in the community."
When the country moved from level 3 to level 2 in May, it had been almost a month since the last day with a double-digit number of new cases.
Dr Hendy says since then, the health system has gotten much better at tracking down and isolating contacts of cases.
"Our contact tracers are doing a really good job this time around, and that will be giving the Government more confidence than last time we moved alert levels.
"But if people aren't compliant, if we do see another superspreading event, we do have the chance of things getting out of control. It is a risky situation to be in, and obviously he's backing the public health system... to stay on top of this cluster."
The biggest risk in his view is the opening up of the border between Auckland and the rest of the country. With everyone at level 2, Aucklanders will be free to head out of the city.
Almost every case in the city has been linked to the same cluster.
"It's been contained within Auckland, but if Aucklanders head out now that the travel restrictions have been lifted, then we could see a much more complex situation that comes to resemble the situation we were facing in April, with multiple clusters around the country."
Businesses have been clamouring for a return to level 2, saying many will go under if the level 3 restrictions remain much longer - even with billions of dollars in assistance from the Government.
Dr Hendy says if they don't play by the rules under level 2 - such as enforcing distancing and mask guidelines, and displaying QR codes for the COVID Tracer all - they risk undoing the progress made to date.
"It's really important that they stick with the rules, because of course if we do have a further outbreak, those businesses are going to suffer."
On Saturday it was reported members of a church at the centre of the mini-cluster in Mt Roskill had continued meeting for prayers during level 3, breaking lockdown rules. Dr Hendy said keeping gathering sizes low will reduce the risk.
"I would have liked to see more time in level 3. Obviously level 3 has been very tough for Aucklanders, but at the moment we do run the risk of having to bounce back to level 3 in a couple of weeks.
"If we do go to level 2 on Monday, it's really important that people comply with the rules - particularly around those event and gathering size limits. The church in Mt Roskill has obviously been the source of many secondary cases, so it's that kind of event that Aucklanders have to avoid over the coming week. It's really important that if you've got any symptoms, you go get a test."
Puketapapa local board chairperson Julie Fairey says the Mt Roskill community is taking what action it can.
"We've had a local Pasifika group giving out free masks... which is just fantastic. There are little community and neighbourhood initiatives like that which I hope give people something to do with their worry."
A pop-up testing site is operating on Sunday at the Mt Roskill War Memorial Park.
"There is that fine line between worry that is actually productive and reminds you to keep yourself and your loved ones safe, and worry that crosses that line into over-worry," Fairey said.
According to a post on the Government's official Unite Against COVID-19 Facebook page on Saturday afternoon, anyone in west and south Auckland should get tested if they believe they're at risk - not just those showing symptoms.
If Auckland does stay in level 3, it's likely the announcement will be made at 1pm on Sunday, when the Prime Minister is scheduled to take part in a press conference.
