Severe Cyclone Yasa is just hours away from potentially unleashing mayhem on Fiji, with warnings that the storm could swamp entire islands.
The category 5 tropical cyclone is currently gunning straight for the Fijian region with sustained wind speeds of 260km/h and gusts hitting 315km/h. It's also causing 12-metre waves, which are significant for the usually relatively calm tropics.
Weatherwatch says the storm is likely to make landfall at Vanua Levu - Fiji's major northern island - on Thursday evening. However, there is a chance that the cyclone could move in between Vanua Levu and Viti Levu - the main island - and therefore make no technical landfall.
"Either way, this storm is expected to pack a punch. This more eastern track (as earlier this week it looked as though Yasa maybe just west of Fiji) exposes many low lying islands south-east of Fiji's main islands to being completely inundated by Yasa's storm surge."
The forecaster says the storm is so powerful that it "has the ability to swamp entire islands, inundate entire coastal communities, wipe some small islands off the map entirely, destroy buildings, bring down trees and cause slips and flooding".
"The most destructive part of this cyclone will be 150km either side of the centre. Heavy rain will affect the entire region - and has done so for the past day. 250-300mm of rain is possible over the next 2 days."
Yasa may also "seriously impact" dozens of smaller islands east of Suva. However, the good news is that if it continues to track east, western Fiji - including the centre of Nadi - could be spared from the worst of the storm's wrath.
"In saying that, everyone right across Fiji shouldn't be letting their guard down with a cyclone this enormous and powerful incase it shifts a little from computer modelling," Weatherwatch says.
"Yasa is also expected to track faster away from the main islands than originally expected. It may be clearing the two main islands as early as before dawn Friday. However, GFS modelling (US) shows it lingering longer over the Bligh Waters and not clearing to the south until Friday daytime."
Weatherwatch says modelling shows remnants of Yasa could get close to northern New Zealand after storming over Fiji. However, "this may be a storm that is torn apart by high pressure as it moves in".
Due to that high-pressure system, Weatherwatch now says there is a 30 percent chance of Yasa's remnants hitting New Zealand, down from 40 percent on Wednesday. There is just a 10 percent chance of severe weather here.
"While this may be a relief to many about to head away for Christmas, or planning Christmas, it may not be good news to farmers and growers who need the rain here. It's also not good news for Auckland's water storage dams.
"Over the past two weeks modelling has been fairly consistent that Yasa's remnants would make it down towards New Zealand but that a major storm here looked unlikely. But the wet weather would have been very welcome."
The latest release from the Fiji Meteorological Service shows a Tropical Cyclone Warning for most of Fiji while a Flash Flood Alert is in force for low lying areas.
