A "large and energetic" low is headed toward New Zealand - and while it's unlikely to make landfall here, it could be the driving force behind wild weather on our shores over the next week.
The low, which is anticipated to deepen over the weekend just north of the country, will develop into a sub-tropical storm that'll bring gale-force winds offshore, Weather Watch says.
The storm above the North Island coincides with the presence of a high pressure belt from Australia, which will "dominate the South Island" and keep the storm from arriving in Northland.
But Weather Watch warns it doesn't mean we'll escape completely unscathed.
"The belt of windy weather between the big high and deepening low, known as the 'squash zone', will affect much of the North Island with blustery conditions in exposed areas, especially in the top half of the island, where the low itself may move closer bringing additional wind strength.
"The incoming high is the dominating feature and will bring drier than average weather to most of New Zealand. But here's a little good news, the sou'east flow coming into Hawke's Bay will bring showers which could accumulate to another 20mm or so over the coming week."
Weather Watch says the weather will create favourable conditions for surfers in the upper North Island, with north-east swells and a south-east wind.
"Waves may also go above the usual limits due to increased power at sea caused by the storm."
But the forecasters cautions against children and inexperienced swimmers taking a dip at north-eastern beaches over the next week or so, saying it could prove to be dangerous.
Weather Watch says the polar blast slated as a possibility earlier this week is no longer happening - but it's likely cold Southern Ocean air will still carry over the North Island as a cold sou'easter next week.
