Dr Ashley Bloomfield says the COVID-19 pandemic is "probably not even halfway through" and warns Kiwis not to get complacent.
At the 1pm COVID-19 update on Wednesday with Associate Minister of Health Dr Ayesha Verrall, the Director-General of Health explained that the possibility of Aotearoa opening its borders next year is slim.
"It depends, and the reason I'm saying that is, it is quite clear that this pandemic is probably not even halfway through," he said in response to a question on borders opening.
It's possible, he added, that New Zealand "might be at the end of the beginning" but COVID-19 is a "tricky" virus.
"We can see new variants emerging all the time, countries that previously were keeping the virus out are now challenged by that. We can see outbreaks emerging in countries like India recently that are extremely extensive."
He said Kiwis can't let their guard down as overseas examples such as recent outbreaks in Taiwan and Victoria show the virus can creep up very quickly.
New COVID-19 variants are highly transmissible, with Dr Bloomfield reporting the index case in Victoria's current outbreak caught the virus in a window of 18 seconds.
"The likely window of infection of the index case there, which happened in a managed isolation facility in south Australia, has been reported as being nearly 18 seconds when a person, unknowingly infectious, opened their door and then this index case opened their own hotel room door within a very short space of time of each other while there was still potentially live virus in the air."
The importance of getting vaccinated when the opportunity arises is highlighted in these outbreaks, Dr Bloomfield said.
However, Dr Verrall added that re-opening borders and returning to normality "doesn't feel like flicking a switch at the conclusion of the vaccination programme. It will be a managed process".
More than 235,000 Kiwis have received their second dose of vaccine, meaning they are fully vaccinated, and the rollout as a whole is 9 percent ahead of schedule.
"Our strategic advantage as a country to date has been our agility and it's very important that we maintain that agility," Dr Bloomfield added.
"Vaccinating the population gives us more options and I think the discussions that are being had right across Government and with the business community as well are how do we make sure we exercise those options in a way that maintains our current protection of New Zealanders without making any hasty decisions?"
Dr Bloomfield said it is vital that as winter approaches Kiwis stay vigilant with cold and flu symptoms. Those who experience aches and pains, headaches, sore throats, coughs, gastrointestinal issues or fever should call Healthline and get a test, he said.
