The price of meth is so high in New Zealand right now the hole in the market caused by Tuesday's international bust will be short-lived, a criminologist says.
But Jarrod Gilbert, director of criminal justice at the University of Canterbury, says the operation will have a long-term effect by preventing organised crime from building an asset base it can use to cement its influence.
More than 800 people worldwide were rounded up in Operation Trojan Shield, including 35 Kiwis, after they unwittingly used a communications app secretly developed by the FBI. Rather than being secure, the app - ANOM - was feeding everything they said to law enforcement authorities. '
"Now criminals don't know if their communications devices are secure," Dr Gilbert told Newshub. "To get duped in this way is a really remarkable thing... For an organised crime group to get duped in this way - believing their communication devices were safe, when in reality they were being closely monitored by the police, is a really big deal.
"One, it provides incredibly good evidence against those involved. Two, other criminals will be looking at their devices and their apps and thinking, 'Wow, am I gonna be next?' There will be a lot of second-guessing going on."
Senior members of the Comancheros, the Waikato Mongrel Mob and the Head Hunters were among those arrested in New Zealand. Amongst the assets seized were methamphetamine and cannabis.
"While there is demand for methamphetamine as there is in New Zealand, and while the prices are high - which is particularly true in New Zealand - the vacuum created by busts like this will always be filled - basic economics," said Dr Gilbert.
"It's true of the legitimate economy as it is the black economy. However why busts like these are so important is because it stops certain organised crime groups gaining an asset base with which they can further their operations, largely through corruption - so buying off Government officials, infiltrating ports and airlines and things like this.
"Knocking out key players stops that asset base, stops that organisation, so it does have a significant effect in the medium- and long-term."
In the short-term however, they'll be struggling.
"This is cat-and-mouse - as soon as the police get one step ahead, the crooks tend to find a way around it. But disrupting communications, it can't be underestimated really how significant it is. If you think about how even in legitimate business if your email goes down or you can't use your telephone, just how difficult it is for your business. Clearly it's no different for those operating in the black economy."
National Party MP Simon Bridges earlier this year accused the head of the police of being a "wokester", claiming "thousands" were joining gangs and asking if force "still arrest[s] criminals in New Zealand". Those comments earned him a telling off from party leader Judith Collins.
National has long talked up its stance on gangs, Collins in February saying police should "go and raid their premises and houses". On Wednesday she said National couldn't "claim all the credit" for Tuesday's bust.
"I do think it's very important that we acknowledge the work of the FBI, the New Zealand Police, all the other policing agencies around the world that have worked together on this. It shows too just how naive it is for the Government ministers like Willie Jackson and Marama Davidson to go cuddling up to the gangs and inviting them into the Beehive as Willie Jackson apparently has with the Mongrel Mob.
"This sort of shows that they are actually organised crime, and it just shows you just how endemic they are. We now have over 8000 patched gang members according to the Gang Intelligence Centre, and it's growing exponentially."
Jackson defended his meetings with the Waikato Mongrel Mob, saying it was part of his job as Associate Justice Minister and Māori Development Minister. Davidson said gangs had been "subject to enduring and systemic racism". Even National's usual partner in Government, ACT, admitted it too had meetings with gang members.
Both Dr Gilbert and the Police Commissioner in the past have said the Gang Intelligence Centre's estimated number of gang members wasn't accurate, as it's easy to get put on the list but harder to come off it.
Appearing on TVNZ's Breakfast, Collins said she still thought the Government was "soft on gangs".
Louise Hutchinson, spokesperson for the Waikato branch of the Mongrel Mob, told RNZ on Wednesday the police had been running a smear campaign against them, and not all of the 35 arrested were gang members.
"Our politicians want to focus on the gangs, but this is widespread... But it's really easy for politicians and the police just to target us."
Both she and gang leader Sonny Fatupaito said the Mob had zero tolerance for drug-dealing. The gang's headquarters was spared in the raids.
"My continued focus as a leader is to influence, educate and empower our members to choose to live positive, constructive, and productive lives free from alcohol and drugs, and steer them in a direction away from criminal offending," Fatupaito told RNZ.
