It will be a "settled, albeit cloudy" start to the long weekend before heavy rainfall arrives with the potential to cause localised flooding and slips.
Speaking to The AM Show on Friday morning ahead of Queen's Birthday weekend, NIWA forecaster Nava Fedaeff said the incoming wet weather won't be "as bad as it was for Canterbury earlier in the week, however, we do have some heavy rain for parts".
"Starting off on Saturday, that's going to be the West Coast as the front makes its way up the country," she said. "The heaviest rain will be on the West Coast. A few showers spilling over to the east, but certainly not heavy rainfall to the east of the South Island. So that is the silver lining there."
As the weekend goes on, a new weather system may cause trouble in the northern parts of both islands.
"As we head into Sunday and Monday, it is the top South Island and also the top of the North Island, we have got a low that is going to be coming down to the upper North Island and that could have some heavy rain there as well," Fedaeff said. "Not expecting widespread flooding, but there could be some localised flooding and some localised slips as well."
She said on Monday, it will be the upper North Island "in the firing line" before the low moves away on Tuesday.
Weatherwatch is also forecasting heavy rain for the West Coast between Saturday night and Sunday morning with the potential for big rainfall in the Nelson Ranges as well.
"Then Northland is the next exposed area for heavy rain," the forecaster said. "While general totals are 40 to 60mm there will be some pockets that exceed 100mm and this may again lead to localised flooding. (The flooding we saw in Canterbury this week was far more widespread and not what we’d usually call 'localised')."
For the battered Canterbury, Weatherwatch said the region won't see much rain other than any spillover from the east.
"It isn’t likely to be too significant for you, but with rivers still swollen, extra caution should be taken until next week."
Metservice is also on the same page, forecasting a "settled, albeit cloudy, start to the Queen's Birthday weekend" for most of New Zealand before a wet change.
"As the low inches northwards on Sunday, winds over the North Island shift to strong, moist northeasterlies. These deliver rain to Northland and Auckland by the end of the day, spreading to the Coromandel and Bay of Plenty during Monday, and scattered falls across much of the North Island.
"There are early hints that the parts of Northland, Coromandel Peninsula and possibly Auckland may get heavy falls with the persistent gusty northeast flow around the low, though unlikely to the level of severity as what was seen in Canterbury earlier this week."
So where is the place to be?
"If I was going to choose, it would be Hawke's Bay or the Wairarapa," Fedaeff said. "So the eastern part of the North Island there seems to be getting the driest conditions."
