The chances of an ex-tropical cyclone impacting New Zealand next week have risen to 60 percent, a forecaster warns, although it's still unclear whether it would hit as a storm or just a low.
A developing low in the Solomon Sea is expected to strengthen as it drifts down into the Coral Sea.
MetService says there is a moderate risk of it developing into a tropical cyclone from Saturday, increasing to a high risk from Sunday.
That would likely impact on New Caledonia, and also bring big seas to the western side of the Vanuatu Islands.
After this, modelling of its path shows it coming into the New Zealand area around Tuesday and Wednesday next week.
"Christmas is coming up and so too is a potential tropical cyclone," WeatherWatch head forecaster Philip Duncan says on YouTube.
"It is still too early to totally lock in but our confidence levels have gone up from 25 percent on Monday to 60 percent today for some sort of impact in New Zealand."
But there's a big question - if it does hit us, will it be as a storm or will it just be a large area of low pressure?
At this stage, some computer models show it directly striking New Zealand similar to Cyclone Gita, which would bring heavy rain, gale-force winds and large swells. However others show it weakening into an area of low pressure - not a storm - as it comes towards us.
"Either way it looks as though increasing confidence of some sort of wind and rainmaker for New Zealand [in the] middle of next week but the details on whether or not there'll be severe weather - still yet to be locked in," Duncan says.
"By the end of this week, on Friday, we should have a little more confidence as to whether or not this looks stormy or just a bit of rain."
