The Ministry of Health has released a chart showing the chilling upcoming COVID-19 hospitalisation scenario that could be brought upon an already struggling health care system - unless we do something about it.
In the past few weeks, the word 'crisis' has been used to describe the healthcare system by workers and those in political opposition. While the Government prefers to call it a "system under pressure", that pressure is predicted to be made much worse by an impending flood of COVID-19 hospitalisations.
In a press conference today, Director-General of Health Dr Ashley Bloomfield revealed that hospitalisations could hit over 1200 beds occupied, which is higher than the first peak of hospitalisations we had back in March.
"This is effectively what we are modelling will happen with our hospitalisations if we do nothing. In other words, if we maintain the current levels of mask use," Dr Bloomfield said.
The modelling shows the peak in cases will be sometime in the second half of July and the peak in hospitalisations a week later.
Dr Bloomfield said the rise is broadly driven by a large number of cases among the elderly, but warns the rate of community infection is expected to peak at around 21,000 cases per day, similar to what they were in the first peak.
But there is something Kiwis can do to reduce the surge in cases.
"We can see that if we do something here, that this peak in hospitalisations, and this is critical, that we can lower that peak if we take steps, if we all take steps," Dr Bloomfield said.
He said by limiting exposure and protecting ourselves, such as wearing masks and getting vaccinated and boosted, the peak can be reduced to 950 and community cases to under 18,000.
Hospitals are already under pressure, with 765 COVID hospitalisations reported today, therefore, an increase in cases to 1200 would have dire consequences.
Health care workers have spoken out about experiencing burnout, working extra shifts and covering in different departments due to staffing shortages and high numbers of patients.
But it's not just hospital staff affected - the pressure on the healthcare system has caused surgeries across the country to be delayed.
Earlier this month, general surgeons said some hospitals are essentially just doing acute trauma surgery, with the number of cancelled planned surgeries ballooning.
Dr Bloomfield urges Kiwis to do their bit to help lessen the impacts on our health system.
"You will all be aware of the pressure our hospitals, indeed our wider health system including our general practices, are under and so it's incumbent on all of us to do what we can to help the reduce the number of infections and the impact on our health system."
