Spring has arrived in New Zealand and NIWA is warning Kiwis to expect "binge rainfall" but also long dry spells and hot temperatures.
Many parts of New Zealand will be pleased spring has arrived after a wild winter season with heavy rain, flooding, gale-force winds and snow, which left some communities in clean-up mode.
NIWA forecaster Chris Brandolino told AM on Thursday Kiwis can expect short sharp bursts of rain during spring.
"I think one way of describing it is maybe what I call binge rainfall. So we know about binge TV watching. You can watch your favourite show on Netflix over the course of a couple of weeks or you can do it in two days," he told AM co-host Ryan Bridge.
"You're getting the same quantity, but it's over what time period. So with the spring outlook, I should mention spring is historically a finicky, very tough season, it's the most challenging season as a forecaster."
Brandolino said there is still an "elevated" chance of more flooding events like what happened in the Nelson-Marlborough region last month.
It comes as an orange heavy rain warning has been issued for Westland, Fiordland and the headwaters of the Canterbury lakes and rivers south of Arthur's Pass.
MetService said Westland will see 550mm of rainfall while the Canterbury lakes should expect 400mm.
"Heavy rain may cause streams and rivers to rise rapidly. Surface flooding and slips are also possible and driving conditions may be hazardous," MetService said.
Brandolino warned New Zealand about the "Indian Ocean dipole" which could hit the country during spring.
"It describes a phase of the ocean, warm or cold and northwest of Australia, the water is unusually warm and that tends to send water vapour into the air and water vapour is basically fuel for rain," he told AM.
"That water vapour, when we get a low passing near Hobart, in Tasmania or Melbourne or Adelaide, it can tap into that moisture and chuck it our way. These conditions, La Nina, Indian Ocean dipole, these fancy words, basically they're going to be working together to increase the odds for when conditions are right for big rainfall events."
Just like Split Enz, meteorologists are expecting to "see red" this spring.
Forecasts indicate temperatures could be higher than usual in the coming months - due to warmer oceans.
"I see red. I see red. I see red. The song and the graphic here, because you can see that we are expecting above-average temperatures across Aotearoa New Zealand for the next three months," he told AM.
"Remember, this is a three-month outlook, just like I tell people, I've said it before, I can say your marriage is going to be great for the next three months. It doesn't mean you won't have a bad week."
But Brandolino warned Kiwis will experience a chilly start to spring.
"The first couple of days of spring, meteorological spring, which is today, probably some warmer temperatures for the east of the South Island, but next week, I'm expecting people to go 'what are you talking about NIWA? A warmer than average spring. It's chilly,'" he said.
"That's a one-off. So next week will be unusually chilly for the time of year, but that's not going to define the season that'll be the bad week of the marriage."
Watch the full interview with Chris Brandolino above.
