The US says the elimination of monkeypox is unlikely as the virus spreads into the wider population, but New Zealand still has a chance to contain the outbreak.
New Zealand has 23 cases in the current monkeypox outbreak, including both active and recovered infections.
Last week, health officials confirmed community transmission of the virus, with two community cases reported, as opposed to previous cases where the individuals were infected overseas.
The virus predominantly spreads among men who have sex with men (MSM), but overseas it is starting to spread to the wider population.
Dr Adrian Ludlam, an infectious diseases expert from the University of Auckland, told Janika ter Ellen on Newshub Live at 8pm two scenarios are playing out in affected places. The first is places with engagement and resourcing for communities affected by monkeypox is leading to controlling the outbreak.
Places with a lack of engagement and resources is leading to continued spread, Dr Ludlam said.
He said the continued spread of monkeypox can eventually lead to the virus reaching outside of the MSM community and into the wider population - which has happened in places such as the US and Brazil.
The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said earlier this month the monkeypox virus is unlikely to be eliminated from the United States, with a report finding low levels of the disease could spread indefinitely. The virus most commonly spreads through sexual contact but can also be transmitted by close contact with lesions, body fluids, respiratory droplets and contaminated materials such as bedding.
"If we see that, those other forms of transmission, beyond the sexual contact, places [and] situations where there's overcrowding a lot of sharing of resources… [it] can potentially lead to that spread and we certainly know that we have a few of those populations in New Zealand," Dr Ludlam said.
But a vaccine rollout could help contain the virus.
The World Health Organization said vaccines used during the smallpox eradication programme also provided protection against monkeypox and newer vaccines have been developed of which one has been approved for the prevention of monkeypox.
Te Whatu Ora/Health NZ is working with Pharmac to secure a national supply of a smallpox vaccine known as Imvanex or Jynneos but the Government said a vaccine order won't be delivered until the end of the year.
"As with all vaccines it's generally best to get them before you are exposed, so obviously the sooner the better," Dr Ludlam said.
He said there is a limited capacity for the production of the vaccine so there is not much supply available, so countries are making their cases to receive it.
However, monkeypox medicine tecovirimat is free and available to treat those who become unwell with the disease.
