GeoNet has revealed there is a 26 percent chance of a higher than magnitude 5 quake striking Taupō over the next week.
It comes after a 5.6-magnitude quake struck underneath Lake Taupō on Wednesday night. It was 9km deep and followed by dozens of aftershocks.
Since the quake, GeoNet has received a range of reports of damage from items falling off shelves to roof damage at a business in Taupō.
GeoNet believes the 5.6-magnitude quake was caused by activity associated with magma and hydrothermal fluids inside the Taupō volcano.
"This activity could continue for the coming weeks or months, at varying rates or intensities."
Sherburn said following six months of volcanic unrest it "looks like it's going to be going on for a little while".
"It's been relatively quiet for the last couple of months and really just the activity last night (Wednesday) has really sort of kicked off a little bit."
GNS Science volcanologist Steve Sherburn told Newshub Live at 8pm the latest quake is at the "upper end" of what GNS usually sees.
"We had a magnitude five in 2019 in the last sort of kind of unrest episode we're currently experiencing," he said.
"It is reasonably unusual to get something that size."
GeoNet has estimated the odds of other sizable quakes hitting the area.
"There is an estimated 26 percent chance (unlikely) that there will be an earthquake of magnitude 5 or above within the next 7 days in the Taupō area," GeoNet said in a statement.
The probability of a quake of magnitude 4 to 4.9 over the next week is 95 percent.
GeoNet also looked at the chances of further quakes over 30 days. It estimates a 35 percent chance of one or more magnitude 5 quakes in December, and a 99 percent chance of one or more 4 to 4.9 magnitude shakes.
It says caldera volcanoes like Taupō see unrest that could last months to years without leading to an eruption.
"Taupō has had 17 episodes of unrest in the past 150 years, and none of them led to an eruption."
Sherburn added the number and size of aftershocks that followed the 5.6-magnitude quake had been going down throughout the day on Thursday.
"Hopefully they won't continue on for too much longer."
Watch the full interview above.
