There is a high risk of a tropical cyclone developing near New Zealand in the coming days, MetService is warning.
The tropical depression currently sits just south of the Solomon Islands and is moving slowly westwards as it intensifies.
"The environment remains very favourable, hence the risk of this system developing into a tropical cyclone in the Coral Sea increases to high from Wednesday," MetService said in its daily tropical cyclone bulletin.
For the long-range forecast, MetService said it could reach severe tropical cyclone intensity of category three or above from Thursday while over open waters in the Coral Sea.
"The system is expected to start moving southeast later in the week, tracking to the far south of New Caledonia," it said.
MetService further warns that at this point, east to southeast winds are looking to strengthen around Northland on Sunday, with rain spreading down the North Island early next week.
"This system is still in the process of developing so we would expect the forecast information to become more reliable once it has done so," MetService tweeted.
"At this point there's reason to believe the centre of the system will come close enough to our shores to warrant this early information."
It comes less than two weeks after parts of the North Island were battered with heavy rain. Auckland and the Thames-Coromandel District are both still in states of emergency.
On Monday, MetService meteorologist Jessie Owen said if the potential tropical cyclone does pass close to the North Island, it will be another "significant weather event" potentially affecting vulnerable areas that are still recovering mode.
"Impacts for New Zealand will be highly dependent on the path the cyclone could take, but may include strong winds, heavy rain, and large swells on eastern coasts if it passes close to the North Island," MetService said.
"It is important to emphasise that the cyclone's path is still uncertain as the system hasn't yet developed."
Owen said MetService will have a clearer idea about the path the weather system will take in the next couple of days.
