La Niña is coming to an end this month, with a likely breather for the North Island.
According to WeathWatch, "the breather coming up will be noticeable and positive for many northern regions."
So far, March is kicking off dry in the North Island following two months of relentless storms, flooding and slips.
Tropical lows are likely to remain during March, which may bring further rain into Northland in the coming weeks and months.
"It is the peak of the cyclone season after all," WeatherWatch said.
However, rain still looks to lean above average for the North Island and some parts of the South Island in comparison to the lower South Island, which remains drier than usual.
And there's a possibility El Niño may develop, which typically encourages more west-to-southwest winds over New Zealand, according to WeatherWatch.
NIWA said on Wednesday the transition will be a distinctive change from summer.
"Low pressure will occur more frequently over the Tasman Sea and the South Island during March, leading to spells of westerly winds," NIWA said.
"While not dominant, the westerly winds will bring more typical cold fronts," they said.
Low-pressure systems to the western side of both islands are expected to produce rainfall that will gradually ease long-term rainfall deficits in the west and south of the South Island.
NIWA said rainfall is likely to be normal in the east of the North Island and near normal in all other regions.
Meanwhile, NIWA is warning the remnant effect of La Niña could still produce sub-tropical and/or tropical low-pressure systems.
Both would mean an increased risk of heavy rain for the North Island.
