As New Zealand ticks a day closer to spring, Kiwis can expect a mixed bag of weather over the coming week, with some places fine and dry, while others could see snow, rain and hail.
On Sunday, a northwest flow should start to strengthen over the south of the South Island.
WeatherWatch head forecaster Phillip Duncan said there is a new evolving weather pattern, which will see more westerly weather coming out of the southern part of Australia.
On Sunday and Monday, Fiordland can expect some rain, while the North Island will see a couple of showers and the eastern side of the South Island will be "mostly dry if not completely dry", Duncan said.
While there might be some rain about, temperatures in the South Island on Sunday will be fairly mild and will be in the low to mid-teens.
Duncan said a lot of high pressure is forming in the Indian Ocean, crossing Australia and tracking along to the north of New Zealand.
That high pressure is causing a lot of windy weather at the moment, which is affecting the South Island, Duncan said.
"So the top of the county is somewhat under a bit of high pressure, it's not really under low pressure or high pressure and a few showers are still possible in mostly coastal areas as a result of the weather we've just had pass through," Duncan said about the weather on Sunday.
Looking ahead to next week, Duncan said it kicks off with a lot of high pressure over Australia and windy westerlies in the Southern Ocean, so Tasmania and the South Island are "right in the middle of it".
"We will be seeing rain building up on the western sides and windier and warmer weather along the eastern sides as that comes through," he said.
"For the top of the country in New Zealand and right across a big portion of Australia, it is dry due to that higher air pressure."
But it's not good news for the South Island on Tuesday and Wednesday with more bad weather on the way.
Duncan warns on Tuesday there are big windy-westerlies over the South Island that could bring severe gales, a heavy rain warning and the chance of snow because of a storm system just south of Stewart Island.
"By Wednesday, it dredges up a classic cold front across New Zealand, another burst of hail and squally showers, windy weather, a temperature drop and snow again for the central North Island," he said.
"We're getting snow once or twice a week in the North Island but it's followed by this warmer weather, which melts some of it."
Duncan said the storm systems are surging in between the two high-pressure zones - which are in the Indian and Tasman Seas - that are tracking east towards the top of the North Island.
"So you've got that one with a cold front and still a southerly flow here on Thursday next week but generally calming down with a big strong high rolling in. So you can see this new westerly pattern starting to show up a lot more now as we go into August," he said.
MetService severe weather outlook
MetService's severe weather outlook shows the South Island could be in the firing line for some bad weather.
On Monday, an embedded trough brings moderate confidence for warning amounts of rain to Fiordland and low confidence for warning amounts of rain to Westland, MetService said in its severe weather outlook.
The forecasting agency also said there is a chance of more warning amounts of rain on Tuesday. It said there is moderate confidence for warning amounts of rain in Fiordland and Westland, and a lower confidence in Buller and about the headwaters of the Canterbury and Otago lakes and rivers.
