Kiwis may have to bust out the sunblock sooner after scientists found the ozone hole could have formed earlier this year and may linger for longer.
The ozone hole is the reason New Zealanders tend to get sunburnt more than other countries.
The ozone layer's role is to absorb the harmful UV rays from the sun but due to chemical pollution, it has thinned, creating what is called an ozone hole. The more it thins the less protection we have from ultraviolet light.
The Antarctic ozone hole typically reaches its greatest extent in September or October and disappears in November or December. However, there were signs that the ozone hole could have formed earlier this year.
NIWA scientists have predicted the ozone hole will stay around for longer than usual and potentially last into early summer.
NIWA principal scientist of atmosphere and climate Olaf Morgenstern said this is largely due to a combination of climate change and a volcanic eruption in Tonga last year.
"Hunga-Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai blasted an astonishing amount of water into our atmosphere. In fact, we are seeing around 10 percent more water vapour than usual. Water vapour is a greenhouse gas that causes cooling of the stratosphere and enhances depletion of ozone by forming clouds above Antarctica," Dr Morgenstern said.
"Additionally, the stratosphere is very sensitive to changes in temperature, with climate change causing a long-term cooling trend. This may be contributing to the cold and stable conditions we are presently seeing."
NIWA is measuring the chemistry in the atmosphere to understand what exactly is going on with the ozone hole which has been slowly healing over the past few decades. Ever since New Zealand introduced the Montreal Protocol in 1987 which phased out the production of chemicals responsible for ozone depletion such as CFCs the hole has been recovering.
However, there have been concerns that climate change could affect the ozone layer's recovery.
NIWA is working with organisations such as NASA and Antarctica NZ to see how things such as the Tonga eruption may be influencing the ozone hole and will be launching balloons in Antarctica to take further measurements.
