Kiwis in parts of the North Island may be in for a wet and stormy Sunday, with MetService warning of heavy rain, thunderstorms, hail and even the chance of a small tornado.
But while the North Island could be in the firing line for some wild weather, the South Island looks like the place to be this long weekend.
MetService said the combination of an unstable atmosphere, convergence between onshore west coast breezes and a southeast wind change is expected to produce scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms to the central North Island on Sunday afternoon.
The forecasting agency warns there is a moderate risk of thunderstorms for the southern Coromandel Peninsula, western Bay of Plenty including Tauranga, southern and eastern Waikato including Hamilton, Waitomo and Taumarunui. There is also a low risk from the northern Coromandel Peninsula to Tongariro National Park.
"These thunderstorms will be mainly during the afternoon, and bring localised heavy rain of 10-25mm/h and small hail," MetService warns.
"There may also be a few funnel clouds, which have a low risk of reaching the ground and producing a small brief tornado."
But while the central North Island could see wild weather, most of the big cities are expected to have good weather on Sunday.
MetService is predicting Auckland to have a fine and sunny Sunday with a high of 21 degrees, while Wellington could have scattered showers on Sunday morning before clearing and becoming fine.
Further south, Christchurch is expected to see some rain on Sunday morning before clearing and becoming cloudy with the odd shower with a high of just 11 degrees, while Dunedin will have a cloudy day.
Labour Day weather
Looking ahead to Labour Day, it's good news for people looking to get the sunglasses and jandals out with fine weather on the way.
Auckland is expected to be partly cloudy with a few isolated showers throughout the day with a high of 20 degrees.
After a wet and stormy Sunday, Hamilton and Tauranga will have a fine and sunny Labour Day, while Wellington is also in for a fine day, but the temperature is expected to be only 15 degrees.
In the South Island, Christchurch will also see a sunny day with a high of 16 degrees, while Dunedin could see some clouds on Monday afternoon but otherwise it will be fine.
But the weather is expected to deteriorate during the middle of next week, with MetService warning an active trough from over the Tasman Sea should move over the South Island, and over the North Island late Tuesday and during Wednesday.
"There is low confidence that rainfall in Westland on Tuesday will reach warning amounts," MetService said.
"Additionally, northwest winds are likely to be strong or gale for a time across parts of southern and central New Zealand, and there is low confidence for severe northwest gales about northern Marlborough, Wellington and Wairarapa late Tuesday and early Wednesday."
On Wednesday afternoon, northwest winds are expected to strengthen over southern and central New Zealand as a front crosses the Tasman Sea and moves onto Fiordland with rain increasing.
There is also a low confidence that rainfall in Fiordland will reach warning thresholds during the latter part of Wednesday, MetService said.
The front is then expected to move north over the South Island and lower half of the North Island on Thursday.
"There is an associated low confidence for warning amounts of heavy rain in Fiordland, the headwaters of the Otago and Canterbury lakes and rivers, and also in Buller. However in Westland, the confidence for warning amounts of heavy rain is moderate," MetService said.
"Additionally on Thursday, northwest winds are expected to rise to gale in exposed places in the east of southern and central New Zealand, and there is low confidence for severe northwest gales about Southland, Otago, Canterbury, Marlborough, Wellington and Wairarapa."
