Aotearoa will become more ethnically diverse in the next 20 years as the country's European population growth slows, Statistics NZ's submation ethnic population projections reveal.
On Thursday, Stats NZ released its projections on what the future population living in New Zealand's 16 regions, 67 territorial authority areas and 21 Auckland local board areas would look like.
It includes "broad and overlapping ethnic groups" including European or other, Māori, Pacific and Asian.
Stats NZ said the medium growth projections show between 2018 and 2043, Māori, Asian and Pacific ethnic populations will grow in all regionals and territorial authority areas.
Meanwhile, Stats NZ said European or other ethnic groups will grow in 14 regions and decline in two. The population is projected to grow in 57 territorial authorities and drop in 10.
"New Zealand will become more ethnically diverse in 2043 than in 2018 due to slower growth of the 'European or other' population compared with other ethnic groups," Stats NZ said.
"The broad Māori, Asian, and Pacific ethnic populations will grow in all regions between 2018 and 2043, while the 'European or other' population is projected to grow in 14 of the 16 regions."
Stats NZ made it clear the projections are an "indication of the overall trend" instead of exact forecasts. The Government statistics agency said Māori, Asian and Pacific populations have a "much younger age structure" than the European or other population, with high proportions of children and young adults, compared to lower proportions at the older ages.
"These young age structures provide greater built-in momentum for future growth. In 2018, half of the 'European or other' population was over 41 years of age, compared with the median ages of 26, 31 and 24 years for the Māori, Asian and Pacific populations, respectively."
Stats NZ added ethnic intermarriage makes an "important contribution to Māori and Pacific population growth".
"In about one-quarter of Māori births (that is, where the child is identified as Māori) the mother is non-Māori and the father is Māori. This proportion is similar for Pacific births."
Read the full report here.
