A tropical low has formed in the Pacific and is likely to turn into a cyclone, with MetService "keeping an eye" on the impact it could have on New Zealand.
The National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) said the tropical low is centred to the east of the Solomon Islands.
According to Fiji MetService, the low is expected to turn into a tropical cyclone in the next one to two days as it moves southeast between Vanuatu and Fiji.
MetService forecaster Matthew Ford told Newshub there is "quite a good chance" the low will turn into a cyclone and could impact Fiji.
"It looks like there is the potential for Fiji to be affected by a tropical cyclone around the middle of this week," he said.
But MetService eased any fears about impacts to New Zealand, with Ford telling Newshub the current modelling has it staying to the north of Aotearoa.
"At the moment I don't think there are any outlooks that directly threaten New Zealand and it looks like it'll move south-east close to or maybe even across Fiji around the middle of the week, and it'll probably still be a tropical cyclone around that time," he said.
"After that, towards the end of the week, it moves kind of south, southeast away from Fiji and out of the tropics. Most of the outlooks I've been looking at, have it kind of weakening after that time. So it should continue south, south-east and it should remain to the north of New Zealand and just continue to weaken."
But Ford said MetService is continuing to monitor it as it's still "early days" and it's worth "keeping an eye on".
"The system hasn't even formed yet, so we're still monitoring its development," Ford told Newshub.
"There's always scope to worry. It's worth keeping an eye on things for sure and as we know from past events, things can change. But at the moment the outlook suggests it will remain to the north of New Zealand."
If it forms into a cyclone, it would be the second of the season after Cyclone Lola.
Lola caused extensive damage to houses, schools and plantations in Vanuatu's northern provinces of Torba and Penama - where power and communications networks remain down.
The remnants of Lola also affected New Zealand with hundreds left without power, several homes, farms and roads flooded and a number of schools and businesses closed as a result of power cuts and severe weather.
NIWA released its tropical cyclone outlook for the season, which runs from November to April 2024, in October.
NIWA said the region should expect nine to 14 "named tropical cyclones", which is near or above normal for the region.
