House prices have risen 0.7 percent in the month of November, and new listings are starting to pick up too, according to new CoreLogic data.
"With the flow of new listings ticking along, we're seeing a flattening and perhaps even a slight lift, in properties on the market in recent weeks," said CoreLogic's chief economist Kelvin Davidson.
That minor uptick in listings is good news for homebuyers with more choice in the market, however, sellers will face more competition.
Average prices
The average house price nationwide is now $915,000.
It's the second month in a row of rising prices in CoreLogic's data, after rising 0.4 percent in October.
Nationwide average prices rose 1.1 percent over the past three months, but they're still 12.3 percent below the record highs of early 2022.
Prices bottomed out in September this year after falling 13.2 percent from the peak, Davidson said.
Around the country
Davidson said November's price uptick happened across the main centres but the market is uneven.
“This month's results serve as a further reminder that this upturn may not be all one-way traffic," he said.
"The patchiness in property values by sub-region, even though wider market averages have started to turn around, could well remain a feature in the coming months, in Auckland and elsewhere too."
Of all main centres, Ōtepoti / Dunedin saw the biggest price gains, up 1.9 percent.
- 0.7 - Auckland / Tāmaki Makaurau
- 0.9 - Hamilton / Kirikiriroa
- 0.7 - Tauranga
- 0.9 - Wellington / Te Whanganui a Tara
- 0.7 - Christchurch / Ōtautahi
- 1.9 - Dunedin / Ōtepoti
Elsewhere, in Tāhuna/Queenstown prices were up a "strong" 3.2 percent, and in Tūranganui a Kiwa/Gisborne prices jumped 1.9 percent.
Other main centres saw modest increases, but prices fell in Whangārei (-0.9 percent) and in Rotorua (-0.6 percent).
Growth was consistent across Tāmaki Makaurau/Auckland, but the standout was North Shore, with prices there rising 1.8 percent.
Meanwhile, prices fell in Manukau (-0.3 pct) and in Papakura (-0.4 pct).
In the capital, house prices rose 1.5 percent in both Porirua and Te Awakairangi/Lower Hutt.
Porirua prices have jumped a whopping 5 percent over the last three months.
"That momentum may not be maintained, but for now, Porirua is certainly showing some steady gains," Davidson said.
Morgage rates
Signs are pointing to a peak in mortgage rates, Davidson said.
"Despite some elevated volatility in global financial markets, the labour market is still relatively robust, and net migration inflows remain very high."
He said the new Government might bring more confidence to the housing market, but any changes to the Bright Line Test or mortgage interest deductibility won't happen overnight.
"In any case, the restraint of high mortgage rates isn't about to alter dramatically."
Davidson said sales are growing in percentage terms but the market hasn't yet roared back to life because credit conditions are still tough.
"Even if mortgage rates don't rise much further, or even dip a bit for the longer-term fixed rates, they're still high - and serviceability testing remains a significant hurdle too."
Loan-to-value ratio (LVR) restrictions are also limiting banks from issuing lots of low-deposit loans.
"Although first home buyers are certainly taking advantage of that speed limit where they can."
Market outlook
House prices are likely to keep rising in the coming months, but they'll vary by location and timing, Davidson said.
He added that housing affordability is still stretched for many across the country, while mortgage rates look set to remain higher for longer.
Borrowers rolling over onto higher mortgage rates in the coming months could be a future risk, "especially if we did start to see some job losses coming through in 2024".
"Right now, it's hard to see the market quickly shaking off the weight of high mortgage rates."
