Kiwis are in for a "not great week" of weather with thunderstorms, hail and rain set to lash the eastern parts of the North Island.
It comes as MetService said it was "keeping a close eye" on a potential tropical cyclone forming near the Solomon Islands. If it forms, it would be the third of the season after tropical cyclone Mal barrelled past Fiji in November, and tropical cyclone Lola smashed into Vanuatu in October.
The Bureau of Meteorology, Australia said there is a "high chance" of a tropical cyclone developing and moving into the Coral Sea by Tuesday.
WeatherWatch said Global Forecast System (GFS) modelling shows a "likely Category 5 cyclone" for Sunday and will likely be named on Tuesday or Wednesday.
But MetService meteorologist John Law told Newshub it isn't expected to have any impact on New Zealand.
"At the moment, it looks like the main area that could be impacted by this will be the Solomon Islands and also that eastern coast of Australia," Law said.
"High pressure over us in New Zealand will keep most of the activity away towards the west. It's one we're going to keep a close eye on. At the moment, I think the most likely area that's most impacted will be those areas on the other side of the Tasman Sea out towards the Australian coastline."
But New Zealand is expected to see a "messy" start to the week, according to WeatherWatch, with high pressure increasing from the west over the next day or two and tracking over the South Island.
Law told Newshub the eastern parts of the North Island are expected to be lashed by rain, thunderstorms and hail on Monday.
"We will find those showers springing up where areas converge, so where winds come together just enough to help spark off a few thunderstorms and some of those could be quite slow-moving, which could bring some high totals as well as some hail," he said.
This has seen MetService issue a severe thunderstorm watch for Waikato, Bay of Plenty and Taupō from 2pm until 9pm on Monday.
The forecasting agency warns thunderstorms are expected to develop over northern and central parts of the North Island on Monday afternoon and evening, bringing localised heavy rain and hail.
"Additionally in Bay of Plenty (including Rotorua), Taupō and Waikato east of Morrinsville, there is a moderate risk some of the thunderstorms could become severe, producing localised downpours of 25 to 40mm/h."
MetService warns this could cause driving conditions to be "hazardous" and said there is a chance of surface flooding.
But Law is hopeful the bad weather won't hang around too long.
"We're going to find this week will get better, [but] there are still going to be some pretty unsettled spells," he told Newshub.
"So it's not a great looking week. We've still got a fair covering of cloud for us and I think we are all going to find some brightness at some point this week, but I think it's going to be dependent on where you are when you get the best of the weather."
Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Area: Waikato, Bay of Plenty, Rotorua, Taupo
Period: 7hrs from 2pm - 9pm Mon, 4 Dec
Forecast: Thunderstorms are expected to develop over northern and central parts of the North Island this afternoon and evening, bringing localised heavy rain and hail. Additionally in Bay of Plenty (including Rotorua), Taupo and Waikato east of Morrinsville, there is a moderate risk some of the thunderstorms could become SEVERE, producing localised downpours of 25 to 40 mm/h.
