The first El Niño climate driver in nearly a decade is on its way out and it's expected that La Niña will develop later in winter - although it's unlikely to bring the extreme storms we saw in 2023.
On his Canterbury farm in Leeston, David Birkett said their soil moisture is very low. He's worried about the growth of his winter crops which are needed to feed stock through the colder months.
"Here in Leeston we've had about 80mm for the whole year. It's significantly under what we'd expect, normally expect to see 200mm," he told Newshub.
The drought index map reflects that, showing soil moisture levels on the East Coast of both islands ranging from 'dry' upto to 'extremely dry'.
And it could stay like that for now - as El Niño comes to an end there'll be a transition period between the two extremes, bringing more westerly winds.
"That does tend to limit the rainfall potential for places like Canterbury, maybe Marlborough and the east coast as well," said NIWA meteorologist Seth Carrier.
Not the news farmers were hoping for.
"The challenge we have now, is this morning we had really good frost, so the growth we get now... even though it's a nice sunny day - there's very limited chances of growth from now on, so the feed we've got is what we've got," said Birkett.
But it could be good news for skiers, with early snow looking like a possibility in autumn.
"Things could be on the cooler side, so if you get a front coming through the South Island with those cooler temperatures, it could open up the door for maybe some snowfall early in the season," said Carrier.
Although the season might not be a long one, NIWA says there's a 70 percent chance of La Niña forming by the end of winter, which usually brings warmer and wetter weather.
Luckily, it's unlikely to result in the extremes of the previous La Niña.
"This is a first year La Niña, whereas the previous one we had, we had 3 years of La Niña in a row," said Carrier.
