Aotearoa's latest population estimate reaches 5.34 million - Stats NZ

The population of Aotearoa rose about 2.5 percent in the year to March, according to new estimates.
The population of Aotearoa rose about 2.5 percent in the year to March, according to new estimates. Photo credit: Getty Images.

New Zealand's latest population estimates have revealed the number of residents is believed to have reached 5.34 million.

The population increased to 5,338,900 people in the year to March, said Stats NZ/Tatauranga Aotearoa on Wednesday.

That's a rise of about 2.5 percent on last year's estimate.

The population of Aotearoa hit 5 million back in March 2020, meaning it's gone up about 6.7 percent over the four year period.

Annual net migration has also fallen slightly to 111,000 after reaching a record high of 134,000 in the year to January.

Infometrics senior analyst Stefan Rood said a burst of migration last year caused the working-age population (those aged 15-64) to grow faster than those over 65, but the trend has since reversed again.

"We expect net migration to continue gradually decelerating from the record-highs of late 2023 as a slowing economy slows demand for labour," said Rood.

A record 78,000 Kiwi citizens left the country in the year to March, making the net loss of citizens about 52,000.
A record 78,000 Kiwi citizens left the country in the year to March, making the net loss of citizens about 52,000. Photo credit: Getty Images.

Tighter immigration settings introduced in April are expected to further turn down the tap on non-citizen arrivals, Rood said.

"By September 2024, we expect annual net migration to dip to below 100,000 per annum," he said.

Despite strong population growth, Aotearoa is seeing signs of a "brain drain". Stats NZ/Tatauranga confirmed on Tuesday that Kiwis are moving overseas in droves.

A record 78,000 Kiwi citizens left the country in the year to March, making the net loss of citizens about 52,000.

"With competitive wages overseas in places like Australia and a rising unemployment meaning more local competition for jobs, some working-age Kiwis will see this as the perfect opportunity to venture overseas," said Rood.

He said Kiwis leaving in droves could affect regions disproportionately as they may be losing workers without attracting migrants to replace them.

Among the other data released on Wednesday was the gender breakdown of an estimated 2.68 million females and 2.66 million males.

Females have a median age of 38.9 years and males' median age is 37.1 years.

The natural increase (births minus deaths) was about 20,000.

The latest population estimates are actually based on 2018's census data, because 2023's census data hasn't been released yet.

Stats NZ/Tatauranga will release revised population estimates early next year.