The latest Newshub-Reid Research Poll shows Jacinda Ardern is still eclipsing her opponents as preferred Prime Minister - but Judith Collins is convinced she will win.
The National Party has been failing to present itself as a government-in-waiting, failing to present itself as anything but one big hot mess - and the polls reflect that.
But National Party leader Judith Collins has enjoyed a wee bump in personal popularity.
In the preferred Prime Minister stakes in the latest Newshub-Reid Research Poll, Collins has shot up to a not terrible14.6 percent up 11.5 points - eclipsing former leader Simon Bridges' meagre 4.5 percent before he was rolled .
"I think we've done very, very well when you consider what we've dealt with in just the last week and a half," Collins told Newshub. "The fact is we have dealt with very difficult situations."
But none of National's leaders are a patch on Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern who is on 62 percent as preferred Prime Minister - and she's still climbing, up 2.5 points.
It's not like Ardern hasn't had her share of shambles - two senior ministers forced out of Cabinet just this month alone.
The Prime Minister says Labour is focused on what matters to New Zealanders.
"We're focused on what matters to them," she told Newshub.
And her messaging is working. This is not just rock star stuff - Ardern has been elevated to saint-like status.
Collins says the Labour Party is getting arrogant.
"We've seen some extraordinary arrogance coming out of the Labour Party," she said.
But Ardern sees it differently.
"I've never, ever taken for granted the fact that we are here because New Zealanders put us here," she said. "We're never, ever complacent."
Nor should she be, because despite the thrashing in the polls, Collins is utterly convinced she'll take Ardern out at the September election.
Collins told Newshub she is confident she will still be the leader of the National Party at the election.
"Absolutely," she said. "In fact, by September 19 I'll be the Prime Minister."
As for whether Collins will resign if she doesn't win, she says that will be "entirely up to the caucus".
To try and keep the caucus on side, Collins delivered a classic political move - if you can't deliver in the polls, pretend they're rubbish.
"It must be a rogue poll," she said.
Collins insists she's seeing rave reviews - when the reality is anything but.
The latest Newshub-Reid Research Poll was conducted between 16-24 July 2020. One thousand people were surveyed, 700 by telephone including both landlines and mobiles and 300 by internet panel. It has a margin of error of 3.1 percent.
