The Finance Minister has responded to criticism of new figures showing a surprise drop in unemployment, saying they show how well the Government's economic response has worked to "cushion the blow" of COVID-19.
Unemployment fell from 4.2 percent to 4 percent in the June quarter, despite the biggest economic shock since the Great Depression, courtesy of the pandemic.
The statistic was met with disbelief, Kiwibank chief economist Jarrod Kerr calling it "unbelievable" and National Party finance spokesperson Paul Goldsmith saying the "real situation" is that unemployment is being kept artificially low by the Government's wage subsidy scheme.
Robertson told The AM Show on Thursday the wage subsidy was indeed to thank, as well as New Zealand's effective lockdown to stamp out community transmission of the virus, which has killed more than 700,000 people overseas.
"We have said all along the worst impacts of it, from an economic point of view, weren't going to be felt until the September quarter data. So obviously these numbers are going to move around a bit."
Other data released by Statistics NZ suggests some Kiwis who lost their jobs simply haven't been looking for a new one, meaning they're not counted as technically unemployed; and a growing number have joined the ranks of the 'underutilised', meaning they're not getting as many hours as they'd like.
Data from the Ministry of Social Development suggests unemployment is closer to 6.4 percent - that's how many in the workforce are receiving the Jobseeker Support benefit, amounting to just over 192,000 people. Another 20,000 are receiving the COVID-19 Income Relief Payment (CIRP), a 12-week benefit that pays about twice what Jobseeker Support does.
Robertson said compared to Australia, which didn't lock down as hard as New Zealand and is now experiencing a second wave of the disease much bigger than the first, we're doing much better economically.
"We do have a direct comparison to Australia, because they use a pretty similar methodology to us. They had an unemployment rate of just over 7 percent during this period, so you know, we're in a good position. We've got a bit of a head-start on the world. But I'm not unrealistic about the challenges we've got in front of us."
While the true impact of the pandemic might not be clear in June's figures, Robertson doesn't expect September's to hide anything.
"Sure, there's people doing it tough, but relative to the rest of the world we're doing much better. When we look at that rest of the world however, it's going in the other direction. The impact of the crisis on the global economy is going to seep through... into early next year as well. This is something we're going to have to manage for some time."
The wage subsidy ends at the start of September, with some jobs its supporting being cut adrift in August. The Government has ruled out extending it, saying those who lose their jobs have the option of the CIRP.
He wouldn't be drawn on how bad September's figures might be.
"Yesterday Treasury were expecting unemployment to be up to 8 percent - it was actually at 4 percent. What we want to do is commit ourselves to making sure that we keep it under that 10 percent level. We want to make sure we drive it down as far as we can.
"But making forecasts and predictions in this environment, as we saw yesterday, is pretty tough."
