Could Sir John Key save the National Party from Jacinda Ardern and if he could would he want to?
National is seriously down in the polls compared to Labour. Current National leader Judith Collins knows what's at stake this election, telling one supporter on Wednesday this is her "one chance" at becoming Prime Minister.
She may need all the help she can get from her former leader. But does she want it - and would he give it to her?
Former National leader and Prime Minister Sir John Key was enormously popular, leading his party to three straight electoral victories before retiring undefeated.
Conservative political commentator Liam Hehir, who was formerly active in the National Party, notes he "retains an unusual degree of mana and respect" due to this.
"Within the National Party, former leaders are quickly forgotten. People don't have portraits of Sidney Holland above their fireplace. Neither Jim Bolger, Jenny Shipley nor Don Brash play influential roles and that's partly because their careers ended in failure," he tells Newshub.
"It's a bit different for John Key because he was undefeated, which is very unusual in recent New Zealand politics. He is not associated with failure and so retains an unusual degree of mana and respect.
"The same goes to a lesser extent for Bill English who is widely perceived to have been unfairly thwarted by Winston Peters."
The latest Newshub Reid Research poll released in July showed Labour on 60.9 percent and National on 25.1 percent.
Under these results, Labour could govern alone with 77 seats, leaving National with just 32 seats.
And in the preferred Prime Minister rankings, Collins was down to 14.6 percent, compared to Labour leader Jacinda Ardern on a whopping 62 percent.
Post-politics, Key remains highly-regarded for his skills, experience and nous with a high-powered role as chairman of ANZ Bank New Zealand. So is it wise for him to chance himself against the popularity of Ardern?
"There is always going to be risk for Key in attacking Jacinda Ardern, as she is extremely popular, and this might have a negative impact on Key's own reputation," Victoria University political analyst and researcher Dr Bryce Edwards tells Newshub.
"Similarly, in associating himself with National at the moment, he risks tarnishing his own brand, as National is clearly not very popular. And if he's hoping to help National out in their campaign then he's really taking on a very difficult task at the moment, as they are polling lower than in any time since before he took over the leadership himself."
So far, Sir John hasn't really used his status to weigh in and try to swing the election for Collins. Dr Edwards says it doesn't appear that Sir John is closely aligned with National at the moment.
"Given National's huge challenge to get its vote up higher, it wouldn't be surprising if the party's leadership has called in Key to try and get his endorsement and his help," he tells Newshub.
"But he doesn't seem to be particularly involved in the party, nor is he close to those in the leadership. His relationship with Judith Collins has been frosty for many years."
Sir John infamously made Collins resign during the 2014 election campaign while an investigation was carried out into alleged conflicts of interest. She was later reinstated to her ministerial roles after being cleared of any wrongdoing.
In her book Pull No Punches: Memoir of a Political Survivor, published June, she took aim at Sir John and the way the investigation was carried out.
"I discovered that my Beehive staff and I had been given two days to vacate our offices. I thought that was particularly nasty," she wrote in one extract.
"I was quite hurt and disappointed when after the election I found out from media that the PM had removed my Honourable title. I would have thought that a phone call could have given me warning," she said in another.
And in an interview with The Spinoff on Tuesday, Collins was critical of her former leader's failures to carry out reform to advance New Zealand.
"I think the thing with John Key is that he loved to be loved," she said.
"And he was; the people just absolutely loved him. He's very personable and very outgoing, and open. But ultimately he didn't take the risks that he could have taken to transform the whole country."
Massey University politics professor Richard Shaw says there are "absolutely" members and MPs who "hanker for the old days" - the popularity and polling National had under Sir John and Sir Bill.
However he says it's unlikely that the current National leadership will want to reach out.
"I wouldn't be unsurprised if there had been a discussion within the caucus or within those who might lose seats [about reaching out to Key]," he tells Newshub.
"I think Collins might resist having anything to do with Key because he is so popular and she is so unpopular.
"You could easily see how she might feel overshadowed by his legacy and his popularity would be a reminder of how unpopular she is."
To the extent that Sir John is useful to National, Hehir suggests it is probably more as a critic of the Government's economic stewardship.
"While Key is hated by Labour surrogates he remained broadly respected right up until the end of his tenure," he tells Newshub.
"And - again - the fact that he was undefeated does give him an aura of competence that other former leaders might not have."
In an interview with Magic Talk last month, Sir John did criticise Ardern for being disinterested in the economy.
"I don't know whether the economy is her big thing really," he said. "I don't know if she's terribly interested in all that stuff."
Dr Edwards says his language shows he chose his words carefully.
"It was also noticeable that Key has chosen not to directly attack Jacinda Ardern, but carefully suggest that 'she is disinterested in the economy'," he tells Newshub.
"This is quite a clever criticism, because it doesn't sound that aggressive, but it works in very well with National's attempts to paint Labour and the Government as being less competent on the economy than themselves. And for many voters, it is a criticism that will ring true without seeming nasty."
"His criticisms will give National some cover but probably not in a manner sufficient to tip the scales in any way," Hehir notes.
Following errors in National's fiscal plan, Labour's finance spokesperson Grant Robertson used Sir John and Sir Bill to criticise Collins and her finance spokesperson Paul Goldsmith.
"There is no John Key or Bill English there anymore. No one who knows how to run a Budget would have made a basic mistake like this," he said in a statement.
Dr Shaw thinks this makes it even less likely that Sir John and Sir Bill would be used.
"Grant Robertson has thrown a few taunts that that is longer the party of Key and English so if they roll out Key and English then it's an acknowledgement that the current leadership is not up to the job," he tells Newshub.
One option for Sir John to help is with fundraising instead of campaigning.
"There's no doubt that Key could play a significant role in raising money for the National Party at the moment. He has lots of business community relationships," Dr Edwards says.
"But even the business community seems relatively happy with the Government at the moment, and it would be surprising if National was managing to successfully raise much money, even if Key was helping.
"Businesses and wealthy individuals like to donate these days to parties that look like they might win, and National certainly doesn't look like that at the moment."
Ultimately, the political commentators Newshub spoke to sum up three main factors which could sum up how much Sir John will get involved: a potential risk to his own popularity if he decides to take a more active role in campaigning against the highly-popular Ardern, a weaker relationship with Collins, and a political current running against National.
Dr Shaw thinks that even if he did get stuck in, it wouldn't be enough to have an effect.
"I don't think it would, people would see it - including in National - that the wheels have well and truly fallen off," he tells Newshub.
"If you have to reach back to a person out of Parliament for four years, it doesn't send a very compelling message you have confidence in the current leadership."
Newshub contacted Sir John but he didn't respond.
