Judith Collins' one chance to become Prime Minister is slipping out of her grip.
Despite a massive money scramble tax cut policy and a successful first debate, the latest Newshub-Reid Research poll will be a kick in the guts for National and yet another bonanza for Jacinda Ardern and Labour.
Even with a bit of her shine dulled, Ardern rules the Parliament, rules the Beehive, and rules the country. Labour holds a majority - just - on 50.1 percent, down 10.8 points after the height of the COVID-19 recovery.
And from those stratospheric highs to languishing in the depths: National is in despair on 29.6 percent. It's up 4.5 points, but that really means nothing when you're still on less than 30 percent.
National is bleeding votes to ACT, which is on 6.3 percent up 3 points - a remarkable result for leader David Seymour. He doesn't need a deal with in Epsom, he doesn't need a seat - he's over the 5 percent to get back into Parliament.
The Greens will be overjoyed with 6.5 percent up 0.8 points. Despite the Green School cataclysm, the party has galvanised - they make it back into Parliament.
Alongside National, the poll's other casualty is New Zealand First. It's on 1.9 percent down 0.1 points. Despite leader Winston Peters' best attention grabs, NZ First is goneburger.
The minor parties are starting to build which we tend to see closer to an election. The New Conservatives are up to 2.1 percent overtaking NZ First. The Māori Party gained 1.5 percent up 1.1 points and The Opportunities Party (TOP) is nudging up 0.5 points to 0.9 percent.
How those numbers look as seats
Labour gets 65 so it can govern alone. National gets just 39 - that's 17 National MPs out of Parliament. ACT multiplies eight-fold the same as the Greens who retain their eight seats.
Collins once set 35 percent in a poll as her sacking point as leader and on that basis, Collins, you're fired.
Newshub Politics has been on the road for the last three weeks all over the country with the party leaders and these numbers truly reflect the feeling out there - a balancing of the ledger with Labour post-COVID-19, but still the Jacinda Juggernaut jaunts on, eclipsing the Judith Jumble.
The latest Newshub-Reid Research poll was conducted between 16-23 September 2020, and 1000 people were surveyed - 700 by telephone and 300 by internet panel. It has a margin of error of 3.1 percent.
