OPINION: National is in a classic opposition party death spiral - we saw it with Labour to varying degrees for nine years.
Judith Collins was supposed to be the circuit breaker after the Simon Bridges shemozzle, the Todd Muller mozzer, the Hamish Walker balls-up and the Andrew Falloon fallout.
But Collins is not getting the cut through. She hasn't even really shored up the base in the way her caucus expected.
It's not entirely her fault - COVID-19, Jacindamia Mach 2, etc.
And the National Party is shambolic, best illustrated by its election campaign tax cut bribe - free money for all.
It should have been the Hail Mary pass for the party but thanks to Paul Goldsmith and the endless accusations of his fiscals being holier than the Vatican, they couldn't capitalise.
National's wound up looking weak on the economy and that's the lowest of the low blows for a party that's traditionally been known as the strong and steady economic stewards.
It's increasingly difficult to see National come back from this.
To her credit, Collins is handling the bad poll blues exceptionally well - though compared to her reaction to our last poll, anything would have been an improvement.
In July, Collins lashed out calling the reputable Newshub-Reid Research poll rogue. It reeked of desperation and she ended up with egg on her face when inevitably every subsequent public poll aligned with it.
Today, she took the high road, focusing on the positives: National is nudging up - though less than 30 percent is nothing to celebrate - and having fun with it all.
It would be so disheartening and dejecting for Collins, she's fought for this job, this opportunity for so long and it's not at all going the way she thought it would.
But she turned a corner this week after a low energy start to the campaign, she won the first leaders' debate and it was the reset she needed.
She's intent on enjoying herself for the final three weeks and it shows - and voters respond to that.
It may not be enough to get her across the line on October 17 but Collins set out an all-out contingency plan today, declaring that she will not be going anywhere if she loses the election.
A bold and brave Collins definitely has a better chance than a belligerent and boring Collins.
Tova O'Brien's is Newshub's political editor.
