Judith Collins has revealed a result in the late 30s would be "fantastic" for National and believes there remains a path to power for the centre-right party.
After a prolonged election campaign, there's only one sleep to go until the big day and Kiwis begin to learn the makeup of the 53rd Parliament.
Colmar Brunton poll results released on Thursday night signal a Labour-Greens Government is on the cards, with Jacinda Ardern's team on 46 percent and the Greens on 8 percent.
National was sitting on 31 percent, while Act matched the Greens on 8 percent.
Polls throughout the election campaign - including the latest Newshub-Reid Research one in September - have consistently shown Labour will be part of the next government.
Speaking to The AM Show on Friday, Collins revealed what result she's gunning for.
"If we can get in the late 30s tomorrow night, that would be fantastic and that is a way through. We have got 15 per cent in that poll last night undecideds. We could do a lot," the National Party leader said.
"It would be great. Let's just be realistic. If these polls are right and you have got ACT at eight. That is actually a winning combination."
However, for National to be heading to the Beehive with those results, they would likely still require the Greens to fall out of Parliament. The Greens' were on 8 percent on Thursday and 6.5 percent in the Newshub-Reid Research poll, both above the 5 percent threshold.
New Zealand First is likely to be kicked out of Parliament on its recent poll results.
Back in February 2018, as National Party MPs were jostling to take over the party after Sir Bill English stood down, Collins set herself a benchmark of 35 percent.
But it's no longer her line of success, she told The AM Show.
"No, well, it's not really. When I spoke about that we were at 44 percent in the polls. I have come in three months ago given a really difficult situation with no notice. Suddenly, 'off you go Judith and do what you can'. I think I brought some structure and discipline."
Collins took the party's reins in July after Todd Muller suddenly stood down. He released a statement early on a Tuesday morning revealing the move, citing health reasons.
Muller had been leader for less than two months at the time, after toppling Simon Bridges in May.
After failing to get traction during the initial months of the COVID-19 pandemic, National was also shaken by a series of scandals in July, including with MP Hamish Walker leaking private COVID-19 data and then-MP Andrew Falloon being accused of sending intimate images to a young woman.
Since July, Collins has to deal with several high-profile resignations, the election campaign being disrupted by the COVID-19 outbreak as well as leaks against her.
The polls have been relatively stagnant for the National Party, hovering around the early 30s and late 20s since she took over.
Despite it all, Collins told The AM Show she is pleased with how her team has performed.
"We have just done so well. I can't believe how well we have done as a party and as a caucus. But it is really important that we do better."
At Thursday night's leaders' debate, Collins said she should be kept on as leader after the election even if her party fails to win Government.
"I am doing a very good job. Nobody can say I am not putting everything into it. I think that we need very strong leadership and we need someone who can make decisions and I am that person with the experience to do it."
She dismissed the leaking and internal ructions as "the life of Opposition". Her focus, she said, is on the people of New Zealand.
Political commentator Bryce Edwards said if Collins can get above 35 percent, she may be safe.
"If she's been able to get it up to 35 percent, then I think her own colleagues and her own party members will appreciate that and want to keep her on," he told Newshub.
"If it falls below 30 percent, then I thinik it will be judged a significant failure and she'll be out of her job quite quickly. Somewhere between those two amounts, will be a bit more ambiguous."
Tune in on Three and Newshub.co.nz from 7pm on Saturday for Newshub’s Decision 2020 election special and live updates of all the results.
