OPINION: This poll has put Decision 2020 on a knife edge - it's Labour's to lose and the possibilities around those minor parties mean it is the ultimate nail biter.
Anything could yet happen tomorrow but on these numbers it's near impossible to see a path to power for National.
Even if Winston Peters makes it back he'd need 10 seats to be in a position to form a right wing block with National and ACT - and presumably to get there he'd be pinching some of their votes.
The mini-surge is great news for New Zealand First but it may be too little, too late.
In the year leading up to the last election, NZ First was polling between 6 and 13 percent. Our last poll was the most accurate - the closest to the election result - and we had NZ First on 7.1 percent just 0.1 point off the final election result - 7.2 percent
So to get 3 percent on this poll the day before the election still doesn't feel like enough to keep Peters in Parliament, marking the end of an epic four decade long political career.
If the Greens don't make it back, that's a lot of wasted vote which also works well for Labour.
And last election the Greens actually went down from the final poll 7.1 percent to 6.3 percent on election night. If that happens again they'd be scraping in by a whisker.
But truly in politics anything can happen, so tomorrow - like this entire campaign - we are in for a thrill, it will continue to surprise us, enthrall us, challenge us, entertain us.
Tomorrow is what politics is all about - for three years they make the decisions that affect all of our lives. This is the moment that you have the ultimate power - nothing is predetermined.
Break out the political popcorn - this is must-watch democracy!
Tova O'Brien is Newshub's political editor.
The latest Newshub-Reid Research poll was conducted between 8-15 October 2020, and 1000 people were surveyed - 700 by telephone and 300 by internet panel. It has a margin of error of 3.1 percent.
