New Zealand faces potentially "several hundred" COVID-19 cases at the border over summer, highlighting the need for robust arrangements to be in place, Chris Hipkins says.
University of Otago epidemiologist Michael Baker on Tuesday said Aotearoa was entering into "the most dangerous phase" in its fight against COVID-19 over the next few months. That's because many of the countries being ravaged by the virus are heading into winter, likely increasing the number of cases there and the number we will see trying to get into the country.
Hipkins, the Government's COVID-19 Response Minister, told MagicTalk on Wednesday that the border has been strengthened throughout the year. That includes by increasing the frequency in which border workers are tested and ensuring guests are swabbed on certain days of their stay.
He agreed those protocols will be more necessary than ever this summer.
"We do have to acknowledge that as things start to wind down for New Zealanders this year, as we head into summer, people start to feel better, of course, because they take a bit of time off and they put their feet up and generally they are healthier," Hipkins said.
"Around the rest of the world, it is the opposite case. They are heading into winter and in many places the virus will be expanding, there will be more and more cases. It is on an exponential growth curve around the rest of the world.
"We are likely to see more attempts at the border. The virus will be coming to the border more than it has been in the past. We need to have very robust arrangements in place there, which we have got."
Hipkins said it's expected thousands of people will cross the border over the period, bringing "some risk".
"There will be probably several hundred positive cases [that] potentially could come through in that time. We segregate those out, we isolate them. We do everything we can to stop that virus spreading."
Already, the number of positive cases being found in isolation facilities is increasing, Hipkins said. He said we generally get two or three cases a day at the border, plus sometimes more.
"Add that up over the summer and that can potentially be quite a significant number of people."
Currently, there are 56 active cases at the border and none in the community. The most cases recorded on a single day recently was nine on December 5.
"Once again, the varied origins of these cases is a clear reminder that as COVID-19 continues to batter countries and jurisdictions around the globe, mandatory isolation and testing will continue to be of critical importance as high numbers of New Zealanders return home before the holiday period," the Ministry of Health said at the time.
On Tuesday, the Government revealed its plan to manage COVID-19 in case it gets into the community over summer. Three scenarios were highlighted, including if a border worker tested positive, if someone at a campsite got the virus, or if an infected person visited a large music festival.
Regardless of whether a community case is confirmed or not, Kiwis are urged to follow basic health guidance, such as regular hand-washing, scanning QR codes and enabling the Bluetooth function on the COVID Tracer app. Anyone who is unwell is asked to stay at home.
"Although we can't predict exactly where or how a community case might emerge, New Zealanders can be reassured planning has been extensive, and has included scenario testing and understanding actions that might be needed, including, as a last resort, alert level changes," Hipkins said on Tuesday.
"If a positive case was found in the community [during summer], we'd use the usual approach to communicating with the public - updates and advice would first be provided by me and/or the Director-General of Health or his delegate."
