OPINION: Is that noise coming from the National Party caucus room the sound of a death rattle? Not yet. But it's not far off.
I think last night's Newshub-Reid Research poll seals Judith Collins' fate.
On the crucial preferred Prime Minister rankings, she's not so much tumbled. But someone call St John please, because Judith's in free-fall - and no National MP is lining up to catch her or offer a wrap-around service.
She's on her own.
She'd long coveted the job, but after she got there, she's been nothing more than a bunch of pre-prepared notes looking for an audience that will help her make it sing.
Collins has not made friends on the way up. Few are hanging around now offering resuscitation services.
The real problem is her diehard National voters have turned their noses up too and left the room. That's the crucial bit.
Her rhetoric on separatism has not landed, but she is not letting up.
"I will not stop while there is breath in my body," Collins said.
Although I was surprised to see the Prime Minister weighing in: "It has appeared to be a political strategy, which I think is sad."
But for Collins, when your own base won't tick the preferred Prime Minister box, it's time to go.
Even John Key is still more popular - and he is not even eligible for the gig.
Truth is, Collins was always a caretaker leader. Now she's become a twitchy nightwatchman with a target on her back.
It appears new MP Christopher Luxon is where the action is, although any signs he's ready to launch aren't obvious. He can barely find the sandwich joint and post office at Parliament - and my sources tell me he wants the job, but not quite yet.
When Luxon goes for it, expect it to be a forgone conclusion.
Lots of ambitious National MPs are making their way to his office these days for chats and strategy talk.
The topic? How to knife Collins in a dignified, bloodless coup.
Bloody awful game isn't it - but Crusher still can throw one or two on the way out.
I don't expect her to be gracious or quiet, but I am now thinking National has lost their belief in her to the extent that a change could come before or just after Christmas.
Duncan Garner is the host of The AM Show.
