ACT leader David Seymour has overtaken National's Judith Collins as preferred Prime Minister, in an historic Newshub-Reid Research poll - and he's not ruling out a bid at the top job.
For a while it seemed Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern could do no wrong by voters, but now she's struggling to do much right. Ardern doesn't believe her Government has become arrogant though.
"No, not at all. You know, for me it is about listening," she told Newshub.
There's plenty to listen to. The backlash is palpable - take your pick: the housing crisis, mental health, immigration, nurses strikes, the botched bubble, vaccination rates, a really overpriced cycle bridge, and ute-gate.
So, a charm offensive is coming, starting with a loosening of the borders.
"There are things we can do to ease the pressure that different sectors feel," Ardern said. "I know for instance horticulture, agriculture, [are] really experiencing workforce issues, we're working hard on those and we will have more to say on that next week."
Labour's problems have the National Party rubbing their hands together.
"Parties who do misuse their majority in a way like that are severely punished," says Collins.
But Collins cannot get a foothold. Despite trying hard to drive herself into the anti-Government zeitgeist in a ute, it's not enough. Seymour is soaring past her as sovereign of the right.
Collins is not helped by her party, which has become synonymous with scandal, in-fighting and instability. Seymour has no such woes.
"If they still want to roll me on these numbers then that means I have a very ambitious caucus and I wish them all the best," he told Newshub.
Ardern is still, by heads and shoulders, the country's preferred Prime Minister on 45.5 percent, though she's lost 2.6 points, which incidentally is exactly how much Collins has gone up by, landing her on 8.2 percent.
But again, any hope of toasting to her small successes are dashed by Seymour. He's better liked, on 8.6 percent, up 3 points.
When Newshub put it to Collins that Seymour is beating her in the preferred Prime Minister stakes, she brushed it off.
"Oh come on, I don't think we want to be silly like that, it's a long way out, Jacinda Ardern is beating both of us."
But if you needed further proof that Seymour has become the de facto Opposition leader, the latest Newshub-Reid Research poll asked voters: Who do you think is a better leader, David Seymour or Judith Collins?
Far more voters back Seymour - 41.7 percent - than Collins on 25.9 percent, while 32.4 percent said they didn't know.
But here's the rub: dig down into National voters, and they rate Seymour on 43.1 percent, which is more than Collins on 38.5 percent, while 18.4 percent didn't know.
Ouch.
Collins wouldn't be drawn on why National voters prefer Seymour over her.
"I think you're just being silly now," she told Newshub.
Seymour isn't ruling out the top job.
"Look, if the people of New Zealand ask me to serve in a role, then I serve in a role - that's what I've always done - and it applies to all roles," he said.
Seymour and Collins have been scrapping over the same voters and the same issues, such as race relations, hate speech and farmers.
It's also fertile territory for Winston Peters. His brief appearance a little over a month ago has ushered him back into political relevance, with New Zealand First on 3.4 percent in the latest poll.
But not everyone agrees.
"Look, he's a spent force and a wasted vote," Seymour says.
"I'm not worried about minor parties, thank you," said Collins.
At this stage, for the right to have any real hope, they would all have to somehow join forces, which is unlikely.
So while the right's in ruin, the left keeps on laughing.
The Newshub-Reid Research poll was conducted between 22-29 July with a margin of error of 3.1 percent.
