For the first time since her historic election result, the glow from Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern's gold medal win has tarnished.
Labour has hit hurdle after political hurdle and it's hurt badly, in the latest Newshub-Reid Research Poll. But National and Judith Collins won't be cracking the champagne - they don't even make the podium, because an old ally has become her greatest threat.
The poll results show Labour's ironlike grip on Parliament has been unclenched. It no longer governs alone on 43 percent, plunging a decisive 9.7 points.
But Labour's loss is hardly National's gain. It's polling at 28.7 percent. Sure, it's bumped up a bit - 1.7 points - but it's barely capitalising on Labour's undoing.
That's because someone else is. ACT is going off at 11.1 percent, up 4.2 points. ACT leader David Seymour is the one who will be breaking out the bubbles, with his party receiving its highest ever result in a Newshub poll.
The Greens got a wee bump, on 8.5 percent, up 1.4 points.
And with more lives than a cat, Winston Peters and New Zealand First are on 3.4 percent, up 1.5 points - not bad, but not quite enough to make it back to Parliament.
The Māori Party are leading the minor parties on 1.9 percent, up 0.7 points.
Seats in the House remind us that Labour still holds the pole position of 56 seats. Sure, it lost nine, but a coalition with the Greens' 11 seats would mean it's still the boss.
National's 37 seats, plus ACT's impressive 14, just don't cut it.
The Māori Party holds its two.
This poll is a watershed moment. It represents a couple of consequential political pivot points. Labour is wounded, albeit self-inflicted, but while National would traditionally benefit from this, it's a mess.
So, ACT, take a bow - today is your day.
The poll was conducted between 22-29 July with a margin of error of 3.1 percent.
