As Cabinet meets to consider a "strengthened" alert level 2, the Director-General of Health is keeping a close watch on testing numbers and is preparing advice on making sure COVID-19 doesn't spread beyond Auckland.
Cabinet meets on Monday to discuss whether it's safe enough for most of New Zealand, with the exception of Auckland, to shift down to alert level 2, given no cases of COVID-19 have been detected outside our largest city since Friday.
Dr Ashley Bloomfield told a press conference on Sunday the Ministry of Health was preparing advice on a "strengthened" alert level 2 framework, though he wouldn't give much away in terms of what's under consideration.
"He will be considering whether there need to be any tweaks to level 2," said Deputy Prime Minister Grant Robertson. "All of that advice is still to come to the Government."
The major consideration is how Auckland, which isn't due a review of its current alert level 4 settings until next week, could coexist with the rest of the country at alert level 2 - something which hasn't happened before.
"We also have to be considering the different alert level statuses we now have," Robertson said. "That will be part of Dr Bloomfield's advice as well."
With Wellington the only other region where COVID-19 has been detected in the latest Delta outbreak, and with those cases seemingly under control, Cabinet will feel the pressure to shift the alert level posts to give businesses a break.
But with testing numbers down at the weekend - 9238 registered on Sunday compared to 12,796 on Friday - Dr Bloomfield wants to be sure COVID-19 isn't lingering in the community, and those low test numbers could force him to take the safe road.
Dr Bloomfield said it's possible the reason testing numbers have dropped is because there are fewer people with cold and flu symptoms, given everyone has been isolating at home.
"Auckland Regional Public Health has done a very good analysis of the testing over the period of the outbreak since we went into lockdown, which shows over 20 percent of the Auckland population has been tested and in the geographical areas and the populations where we want high testing."
Another promising development is that of the 38,120 contacts of COVID-19 cases identified, 90 percent have been tested at least once.
But Dr Bloomfield wants to be certain it's safe to move.
"It's just important that over this next week we achieve two things," he said.
"First of all, we are absolutely confident that there are no undetected cases out in the community, and the best way to find that is for anyone symptomatic to get tested.
"The second is that we will be wanting to prevent any leakages that were out of Auckland across the boundary, whatever that boundary might be... and that will be discussed with the transport industry and other employers, about the testing of people who are crossing that boundary."
Weekly testing of people travelling between alert levels for work could be part of a level 2.5, which isn't a new concept. Auckland went into an informal alert level 2.5 in August last year, which imposed smaller gathering restrictions, as the rest of the country moved to level 2.
What might it look like?
While we won't know Dr Bloomfield's advice to Cabinet until Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern holds her press conference at 4pm, there are some major clues as to what this "strengthened" level 2 might entail.
Members of University of Otago's public health department - including epidemiologist Professor Michael Baker - have outlined what additional restrictions they think should be imposed at alert level 2.
- make mask-wearing indoors outside the home mandatory
- make QR code scanning or signing in at entrance ways mandatory
- limit indoor gatherings to 25 people inside and gatherings outdoor to 50
- close venues that present a high risk of super-spreading events, such as bars, nightclubs, gyms and churches
- introduce a zero-alcohol limit for driving to reduce demands on emergency services to help free-up hospitals and ICUs
Not everyone is a fan of this advice. Exercise NZ chief executive Richard Beddie says gyms could be opened safely.
"It is not whether gyms should be open or closed, but what can be done to keep people safe," he said. "The exercising public has been safe at level 2 and gyms have been operating without any issues for almost 19 months now."
But Dr Bloomfield is not taking any chances, despite only 20 new community cases reported consecutively over the weekend.
"It's really clear we're heading in the right direction. But we want to be sure those are the only 20 cases out there," Dr Bloomfield said.
"I think the other thing that is reassuring is not so much the number but where we are finding those cases and the fact there are very few additional exposure events.
"The important thing is now we can't let even one case slip the net here, because Delta is so transmissible, and that's why the next week is going to be critical to keep testing rates up and for people to just dig in and just abide by those alert level 4 restrictions."
The Government is taking the same cautious approach.
"We are heading in the right direction when it comes to getting control of this outbreak, but the job is not over yet," Robertson said.
"As we saw with our first case, it takes only one person to have the virus and silently transmit it over the course of a week, for Delta to get out of control.
"This is why we want to see testing numbers in Auckland increase.
"We need to make sure we've got the confidence that the 20 cases that were reported today, for example, are the only 20 cases out there, and that people aren't going about their lives at level 4 with Delta undetected."
