Retail could soon return to Auckland in a potential shift to alert level 3, step 2, which would ease some of the financial pressure on the city entering its twelfth week of lockdown.
That may come as a surprise to some Kiwis - that restrictions could soon ease despite more than 300 COVID-19 cases reported over the weekend - because we're so used to growth in case numbers leading to higher restrictions.
But now that 80 percent of Aucklanders are fully vaccinated, the Government's response is adapting, as Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern signalled on Monday morning ahead of yet another alert level decision.
"Things are tracking really well in Auckland," she told The AM Show. "You've seen a considerable uptick in those first doses, particularly in those areas where we wanted to see that big lift. We've got that check-in on 29 November just to see whether or not we're on track for that 90 percent target across each of those DHBs."
The Government recently announced its new COVID Protection Framework, or 'traffic light' system, to replace the alert levels. It comes into force once 90 percent of the eligible population is vaccinated across each District Health Board.
Since Auckland has been in lockdown for months and is close to reaching the target, it could enter the traffic light framework sooner, leaving the rest of the country - currently at 75 percent full vaccination - to catch up.
Once the traffic light framework comes into force, what freedoms people have will be determined by vaccine certificates. For example, when Auckland enters the 'red' light, hospitality venues can open with up to 100 fully vaccinated people, but businesses that choose not to use vaccine certificates must remain contactless.
But that's not the only route to more freedoms.
"We do still have in play the step downs that we talked about and signalled some time ago, so that's what Cabinet will be looking at," Ardern said. "We're in that step 1. The next one is around whether you open up retail. Those are all still in play."
Under current alert level 3, step 1 settings in place in Auckland and parts of Waikato, two household bubbles of up to 10 people are allowed to meet outdoors, and some outdoor recreational activities are permitted.
When the time comes for step 2, retail will return, public facilities like libraries will be able to open again, and gatherings of up to 25 people outdoors will be permitted.
Under step 3, hospitality venues will be allowed to reopen with a limit of 50 people, events like cinemas and casinos will open their doors again, and indoor social gatherings will be permitted with a limit of 50 people.
A shift couldn't come soon enough for Auckland retail businesses.
"After nearly 11 weeks of lockdown, the time has come to move to step 2 of the roadmap this week, and get shops and services open," says Retail NZ chief executive Greg Harford.
"Retail can operate safely, with customers wearing masks, scanning in, distance being maintained in-store, and great hygiene practices. There is no compelling reason for retail not to open, as the Government has previously announced it would be able to do."
According to Auckland business association Heart of the City, the CBD is on track to hit a $1 billion loss in consumer spending before it reaches the traffic light system.
When could step 2 happen?
Cabinet is waiting for signs that vaccination is having an impact on the outbreak in Auckland, and modelling shows the worst could be over in a matter of weeks thanks to strong jab uptake.
"We do expect cases to continue to rise and I think you probably will have heard people talking a bit about this, but we are expecting soon that we may reach a peak of daily cases," Ardern said.
"Of course, there is a bit of an unknown period until that point. But at this stage we're talking potentially 200 cases a day [as the] mark. That's the point at which modellers believe vaccinations will really start having an impact.
"Across the course of November is the point at which our modellers believe we'll hit that peak."
Ardern said modelling is never foolproof but it's been fairly reliable.
"The reason that modelling is important to us is it gives us a sense of within our current restrictions, what we can expect to happen. That's important to us to make judgments around just making sure we've got everything in place to prepare for that, but also what may or may not happen if we move either side of that.
"You can see some of the things we're factoring in as we make those decisions and whether or not we are at the moment sitting within that range. At the moment we are, we tend to be tracking fairly predictably.
"But of course, before you hit the peak, you do want to be careful. We don't want to make a misstep that means we shoot off in an uncontrolled way.
"The reason we've been careful about that is, if it stays in that zone where those numbers stay down, it means when we do open up our ability to keep those numbers down is much, much better and that means that we just don't have some of those really high escalating cases when we come to ease."
