There are 53 COVID-19 cases in hospital, with an average age of 47 and three people in intensive care - but new modelling predicts that near the end of November, we'll be hitting 200 cases a day and 150 people could be in hospital.
Gazing into the mathematically modelled crystal ball, Director-General of Health Dr Ashley Bloomfield revealed that the prediction is we'll reach 1000 cases a week starting now, growing to 1400 a week by the end of the month - so 200 a day.
That would see new hospitalisations hit 150, with 20 ICU beds occupied.
"That doesn't project deaths but what I can say is now nearly three months into the outbreak, we've had, tragically, two additional deaths," Dr Bloomfield said.
The Director-General puts our low death rate down to vaccination, the young age of cases and improvements in how we treat COVID-19 patients.
But just last month a top ICU doctor and nurse warned Newshub the threat is real.
Dr Bloomfield says on those projections, ICU won't be overwhelmed.
"No, they won't be."
Looking at the anatomy of the outbreak, the modelling shows hospitalisations have stayed low. But alert levels have dictated case numbers. After Delta took off, you can see level 4 started working, but moving to level 3 shows a spiky but very clear increase in cases.
"It is a difficult trade-off. The longer you spend at level 4, the shorter period you have to spend at level 3. In this case, I would've liked to see a stay at level 4 for another week," says Auckland University Professor Shaun Hendy.
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern insists she didn't move Auckland out of level 4 too soon.
"No."
If you need further proof that this is a virus hunting the unvaccinated, check out the slide below - these are the cases with the tower of grey representing the unvaccinated.
And below are the hospitalisations - where things get serious. They are almost entirely unvaccinated people requiring medical help.
"Ultimately we don't want anyone hospitalised let alone in ICU, so again, get vaccinated," Ardern said.
Bloomfield has painted a relatively rosy picture for our future - low hospitalisations and low ICU rates, reiterating that rock-solid case for vaccinations.
The Prime Minister feels a bit caught in the tug of war of professors - some calling for more restrictions, while others call for fewer.
This was the Government creating a case to move Auckland down to step 2 next week. The problem for Ardern is, it's a very compelling case, which will leave a lot of Aucklanders scratching their long-haired heads over waiting another week.
