A distress signal is ringing out from Judith Collins' leadership office this evening and victory bells tolling from ACT's new party bus.
Despite widespread dissatisfaction with the Government's confusing COVID-19 response, the latest Newshub-Reid Research poll shows the National Party and Collins, in particular, have failed to capitalise and get voters on side.
The mood for a coup is heating up and it's not just National's caucus who thinks Simon Bridges should wield the axe.
The political death spiral is the slipperiest slope and National is tumbling. Without a strong National Party, Labour's confounding and conflicted COVID-19 response has barely made a dent.
Labour is holding steady on 42.7 percent - down just 0.3.
And instead of exploiting the Government's weaknesses, National is only getting weaker itself, on 26.9 percent - down 1.8.
But if Collins thought that was bad, this is her humiliation: the ACT Party is slaying on a massive 16 percent, up a record-breaking 4.9 percentage points. The minor party is minor no more.
It's ouch for the Greens on 7.2 percent, down 1.3.
The Māori Party with an electorate seat is making minor gains reaching 2.1 percent, up 0.2.
And without a seat, Winston Peters fades back into political no-man's land with his party NZ First on 2.5 percent, down 0.9.
In Parliament where it counts, Labour's red wash has been diluted, with 54 seats. But with the Greens' nine, the left still triumphs.
National would have 34 seats - meagre for the former powerhouse - and even with ACT doubling its MPs to 20, it's not enough.
The Māori Party grows its caucus by one - three seats.
The phones will be ringing hot in the National caucus. The question isn't so much: 'to coup or not to coup', but whether to roll now or roll out a 2022 coup debut.
The Newshub-Reid Research poll was conducted between 10-17 November with a margin of error of 3.1 percent.
