With active COVID-19 cases now found in 13 of New Zealand's District Health Boards and it being less than 10 days until Auckland's border reopens, there are concerns of a surge in cases over Christmas and summer.
But the Prime Minister is reassuring Kiwis that she's not anticipating the Government will implement any lockdown over the period and if there was such a need to, any lockdown would be localised and come with much more warning than usual.
While cases appear to have eased in recent days - dropping below 100 on Friday for the first time in more than a month - the move out of lockdown for Auckland last week and transition to the traffic light system for the country could lead to a jump in infections, modeller Professor Michael Plank says.
"It's possible we will see a surge in cases following on from the move to the traffic light system. It usually takes one to two weeks for that to show up in the case numbers," he told Newshub. "It's likely to be into next week before we really start to see that. We'll be getting quite close to Christmas really by the time that comes through in the case numbers."
Most of New Zealand is in the orange setting of the traffic light system which means there are no limits on gatherings, events and hospitality if the vaccine passport is in play. At red, where Auckland sits as well as lower vaccinated regions, there are limits of up to 100. That's still far freer than at alert level 3 when indoor gatherings were banned and most venues couldn't open to customers.
"It's a bit tricky to predict what will happen over summer," Prof Plank says. "Schools being on holiday, you know, that might reduce the potential for transmission in the community. "
"But then of course, when we get back into the swing of things next year and schools start going back, it's possible that's when we'll start to see a more sustained increase in case numbers."
Jacinda Ardern was asked on The AM Show on Monday whether there was any chance a region could be placed in lockdown over the summer period when many Kiwis won't be at home and may instead be travelling around the country.
"I'm not anticipating that that will occur. There's nothing to suggest that that will occur," the Prime Minister said. "The framework that we've just moved into has the option of localised lockdowns if that is required, but it's not, as you can see, part of the core framework."
The detailed version of the COVID-19 Protection Framework (traffic lights) says it is intended to reduce the need for "widespread lockdown", but that "localised protections and lockdowns" can be used "to control high rates of transmission".
"The restrictions implemented will consider specific circumstances and the nature of the public health response required," the framework says.
Those restrictions could include stay at home orders, the closure of premises such as schools or retail stores, restrictions placed on gatherings and restrictions on movements in and out of locked down areas.
So what're the criteria that would need to be hit for a localised lockdown to be implemented?
"If you have, for instance, an outbreak in an area that is growing, that is putting pressure on a hospital system, where we've got a community of low vaccination rates, all of those things may contribute to that decision," Ardern told The AM Show.
"But when we say localised, you won't see a situation where the entire country or all of Auckland, we're talking localised."
An example of a localised lockdown is what was seen in upper Hauraki earlier this year when a number of cases popped up there.
"That's an example of the kinds of thing that you might see if we have a significant number of cases, pressure, and low vaccination rates," Ardern said.
"Nothing would happen suddenly, though, and that's a big shift from where we've been before. So in the past, it's often been just a press statement and announcement in the afternoon that we've had a case and we're all going into a change in system.
"It won't be like that in the future. You will see if there's an issue and if it's growing… a bit more warning."
The Prime Minister also addressed concerns that some elderly individuals in aged residential care may not be able to see loved ones over Christmas and summer if those visiting are not vaccinated.
She said there were a number of protocols in place to allow those kinds of visits to happen and that was covered in guidance for the facility.
"It talks about all of the protocols you'd expect to have in place to keep people safe under all of the different levels and how to use vaccine passes, how to use negative tests just to make sure that people keep safe and well.
"We want people to be able to visit but we want it to be safe. We know that we have had cases in facilities and I know no family member wants equally, their family member to be put at risk. But the guidance is there to help balance both."
One section of the guidance says that even at red, visitors who are not vaccinated can enter if they have a negative COVID-19 test 48-72 hours before their visit. Other protective measures, like mask-wearing and visiting outdoors, may be necessary at that higher level.
