Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern started a tradition in 2019 when she declared it the year of "delivery" - a theme she continued in 2021 by naming it the "year of the vaccine".
But Ardern was beaten to the punch this year by ACT leader David Seymour, who believes he has the answer: 2022 is the "year of the hangover", due to the effects of lockdowns and borrowing billions.
"I note a glaring omission that the Prime Minister did not name the year 2022," he said at a recent press conference. "2019 was the so-called year of delivery, 2021 was the year of the vaccine - although I'd say mainly the second half. Let me tell you, 2022 will be the year of the hangover."
He pointed to the "$60 billion in government debt, 5 percent inflation which some pundits say will go to 6 percent in the year to the next quarter, kids that have missed almost half a year of school in Auckland, an estimated 37,000 operations not done by September" and "whole industries such as export education that have been missing out".
The latest newsletter from ACT doubles down: "This year will be the year of the hangover. New Zealand will feel the effects of our lock 'em down, lock 'em out, borrow, spend and print approach to COVID.
"Labour bought into the delusion that sealing ourselves off from the world for two years would cost us nothing. For the United States, it might be believable at a stretch. For a small trading nation of five million, it's a fantasy."
July last year saw the highest inflation increase in a decade to 3.3 percent, driven by higher prices for housing and petrol. It prompted a wave of criticism about the Government's big borrowing to pay for the COVID-19 response, made possible by the Reserve Bank's programme of bond buying, or 'money printing', which has since winded down.
The Reserve Bank also dropped interest rates to ensure banks kept lending during the crisis, which helped to keep employment up, but led to meteoric house price inflation. The Reserve Bank has now tightened lending rules and is expected to continue lifting the Official Cash Rate (OCR).
In the Government's final financial update of 2021, Treasury predicted that inflation will continue to outpace wage growth in the near future.
"Aggregate demand and wage pressures have combined with ongoing supply chain disruptions to push Consumer Price Index inflation well outside the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's target range of 1 percent to 3 percent."
Inflation was forecast to peak at 5.6 percent in the March 2022 quarter, which Treasury noted was "significantly higher than the peak expected" in the Government's Budget update earlier in the year.
ASB Bank chief economist Nick Tuffley now expects annual inflation for the December 2021 quarter to hit 6.1 percent.
Economists believe that stimulus-spurred consumer buying is a reason for inflation. But it's not that simple. COVID-19 has also disrupted supply-chains across the globe, and when too much money is available to purchase too few goods and services, demand outstrips supply, forcing prices up.
And it's not unique to New Zealand and not always controllable. The Government cannot help, for instance, the fact that global supply-chains have been disrupted due to COVID-19. Finance Minister Grant Robertson has described it as a "global phenomenon" due to the pandemic.
Inflation in the United States, for example, is the highest it's been in nearly four decades. The Wall Street Journal attributes this to supply-chain disruptions, a shortage of goods and materials, "coupled with strong demand from consumers flush with the benefits of government stimulus".
National's finance spokesperson Simon Bridges says inflation could be prevented in New Zealand if the Government wound up its COVID-19 spending.
"Core government spending is forecast to run a whopping 68 percent higher since Labour took office," he said in December. "While elevated spending levels were appropriate through much of the pandemic, many economists and the likes of the Reserve Bank now confirm its an overheating economic picture where adjustments and some easing off is required."
But Robertson says the country needs more investment in areas such as health and climate resilience, hence the Government's mammoth "one-off" $6 billion operating allowance, or new money, allocated for 2022.
Another way to help limit inflation is to reduce the amount of time COVID-19 case contacts have to spend isolating at home, according to Seymour. The Government has estimated 350,000 people at once could be self-isolating during this Omicron outbreak, which will disrupt supply-chains.
There is financial support available from the Government to employers to help pay their employees who've been advised to self-isolate because of COVID-19 and can't work at home.
The leave support scheme is $600 per week per full-time worker, and $359 per week for a part-time worker.
There is also the short-term absence payment available to help bosses pay their employees who cannot work from home while they wait for the result of a COVID-19 test. That is paid at $359 per eligible worker.
More details on the updated definitions of contacts and isolation requirements under the three Omicron response phases will be provided on Wednesday by Associate Health Minister Dr Ayesha Verrall.
