The Health Minister doesn't know what the daily case total would need to fall to for a move out of the red light settings or what could eventually prompt an end to self-isolation for returnees.
New Zealand moved to the red light setting on January 23 after a handful of cases of the highly-transmissible Omicron variant were detected within the community. Red imposes limits on gatherings, but is not as severe as lockdowns, with businesses still able to operate and no stay at home orders in place.
But it's forced the event industry to its knees, with a slew of festivals, fairs, and ceremonies cancelled or postponed due to the restrictions. Financial support is available for some events organised through to January next year.
The COVID-19 Protection Framework (or the traffic light system) says the red level is necessary when action is needed to protect the health system and the system is "facing [a] unsustainable number of hospitalisations". Orange is when there is community transmission and pressure on the health system, but it can manage.
New Zealand isn't currently seeing any massive load on the hospital system. On Tuesday, 202 new community cases were recorded and there were 14 people in hospital. At the peak of Delta last year, there were just under 100 people in hospital.
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said New Zealand is currently currently tracking at the "lower end" of predictions of how many cases and hospitalisations Omicron may result in, but we shouldn't get complacent.
Speaking to NewstalkZB on Wednesday morning, Health Minister Andrew Little said overseas experience shows that Omicron can rapidly take off, justifying the need for some restrictions.
"Whereas a week we had 100 cases a day, now it is 200 cases a day, we've been told very shortly it will be 400," he said.
But he couldn't say what the daily case total would need to fall back down to for a move to orange.
"I don't have a figure… I can't tell you. I haven't seen advice on it."
The Prime Minister also couldn't provide any specificity on Tuesday when asked what may prompt a shift.
"It will be very much based around the impact on our healthcare system. At this stage, it is too early for us to know what the impact on our health system will be as Omicron increases in its spread," Jacinda Ardern said.
"It is something we will keep under constant assessment, but we are in a preventative footing at the moment to stop it being overwhelmed. When we feel we are at a point we are comfortable, that we are not seeing an ongoing increase in cases, that we believe we have obviously reached a peak and we have managed to maintain and sustain health services, that will put us in a better position to make that judgement."
The COVID-19 Modelling Aotearoa group on Tuesday said that even with high booster uptake and moderate health measures, like that at red, "demand on hospitals and intensive care units remains high and would put significant strain on our hospital capacity".
The most optimistic model simulated showed there will be 1.5 million infections and 386,400 cases. That scenario would see the number of people hospitalised hit 11,500, with peak bed use of 800 and deaths reaching 460.
Little on Wednesday also couldn't say when people travelling to New Zealand will not have to self-isolate upon arrival.
"At the moment, the opening of the border programme is still dependent on the 10-day isolation and all the rest of it. At some point that will go," he said.
"No, we don't [know what that point is]. We still don't know the trajectory of COVID, the new variants that might emerge and all that sort of stuff. We just don't know. We do what we think we have to do to keep as many people as safe as possible."
The Government announced last week that MIQ will slowly be wound up over the course of the year for vaccinated travellers. It will start with Kiwis returning from Australia, then Kiwis from elsewhere. By July, visitors from Australia and other countries with a visa-waiver can come to New Zealand, and then in October the border will fully reopen.
Although MIQ will become less necessary, travellers are still required to self-isolate. Initially it will be for 10 days, but that will reduce to seven when the self-isolation period for contacts of community cases is also dropped.
But some in the tourism industry are worried the requirement to self-isolate will put off potential tourists.
Flight Centre managing director David Coombes told AM on Wednesday the isolation requirement could be a deal-breaker for many tourists.
"I think that's a really significant impact. I can't think of too many people who are coming for tourism reasons who are prepared to self isolate for seven to 10 days," Coombes said on Wednesday.
"They've got to find somewhere to self-isolate and then do it. I think that's okay for families coming home to visit and that's great, but that's a pretty small sector and we do fear for our tourism businesses who are being left behind."
National's tourism spokesperson, Todd McClay, agrees, saying the lack of certainty about when self-isolation will end isn't helpful for attractions and hospitality venues that haven't had international visitors in nearly two years.
"The Government’s current policy that vaccinated visitors won’t be able to come to New Zealand until after October and will have to self-isolate for up to seven days means few tourists will come," McClay says.
"The average length of stay for an Australian holidaymaker is around five days. They won’t be coming here to spend their time looking out the window of a self-isolation hotel and ordering Uber Eats."
The Prime Minister said last week that the Government is "continually monitoring the need for and the value of self-isolation".
"The strong advice from our public health officials is that we still need it to manage our way through Omicron, but there will be a time in the not too distant future when that will not be the case. For now, though we must continue to heed the public health advice that has served us so well."
The isolation period will drop from 10 to seven days when New Zealand reaches the second phase of its three-phase Omicron plan.
We're currently at phase one where a "stamp it out" approach is being taken with broadly the same testing, contact tracing and isolation requirements as with Delta. At phase two, when there is a large number of cases, the system will move to focus more on those at greater risk of illness, with the isolation period and more digital technology used. At the third phase, which will come into effect when there are thousands of cases a day, contact definitions will change and more self-service tools will be used to respond to cases.
