As the Parliament protest enters its third week, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has dropped a hint that COVID-19 rules could ease after Omicron's peak.
"We constantly discuss every single layer of protection we have and it's a constant discussion because we don't want any restrictions to stay in longer than they're needed," Ardern told AM on Monday.
"But again, what we're very clear on - and you'll see from the experts that have already been in the media discussing issues like mandates - is that when we're moving through what will eventually be a peak, now is not the time to remove them.
"But for what the future looks like, I am going to talk a bit more about that this afternoon."
Protesters opposed to vaccine mandates and other COVID-19 restrictions clashed with police in the early hours on Monday as concrete barriers were installed at eight streets surrounding Parliament to prevent more vehicles from joining the protest and to maintain access for residents, businesses and emergency vehicles.
Ardern has so far refused to engage with the protest movement, describing it as "illegal" due to the estimated 800 vehicles illegally parked near the precinct and tents erected all over Parliament's lawn.
"I can certainly see from the building and place that I work that the disruption has been enormous to businesses. There are schools within the location of the protest and students are now being escorted to school because of the intimidation and harassment," Ardern told AM's Ryan Bridge.
"I think ultimately, Ryan, the point that I would make is that all of this would be resolved if the protesters accept that they have made their point and it is now time to go home."
Police two weeks ago arrested more than 120 protesters after House Speaker Trevor Mallard issued a trespass notice. But a defiant group remained, despite the Speaker's controversial attempts at dispersing them with sprinklers and loud music.
Mallard last Thursday announced a cross-party decision that there would be no dialogue "until the protest returns to one within the law, including the clearing of all illegally parked vehicles that are blocking streets, the removal of unauthorised structures, and the cessation of the intimidation of Wellingtonians".
But the protesters kept coming, with the number of vehicles swelling to approximately 2000 at its peak on Saturday.
Police Commissioner Andrew Coster at the weekend admitted to Q&A that "it shouldn't have got to this", and that police could have acted sooner to prevent tents going up, but he stood by the de-escalation strategy because he wanted to avoid repeating "low points" in policing history, citing the 1981 Springbok tour protests that resulted in some 1500 arrests.
Ardern expressed confidence in Coster, but did not personally agree with the entire operation.
"Do I always agree with every operational decision that they make? Not necessarily, but they have my support," she told AM. "There will be times when I don't always necessarily agree. But they have my absolute support, that won't change."
A post-COVID future?
As other countries begin to ease COVID-19 restrictions - Australia is now welcoming international tourists and the UK plans to scrap all self-isolation laws - Ardern looks set to outline New Zealand's direction after Omicron peaks.
"You will have already seen the proof that we are moving away from things like lockdowns, we've changed isolation periods, we're opening our borders; as it is safe to do so, we will move away from those measures," she told AM.
"I will talk a little bit more about some of our wider public health restrictions to address questions that New Zealanders have. I'll do a little bit more of that this afternoon.
"But the point that I would make is that all of those measures right now have the broad support of most New Zealanders because we are right at the front end of a peak, not coming off it, so this is not the time to pull off our armour, right when the enemy is on the doorstep."
More than 2000 COVID-19 cases were registered in New Zealand on Sunday, highlighting how transmissible the Omicron variant is. But there wasn't one person in ICU, likely reflecting the fact that 95 percent of the eligible population is fully vaccinated with two doses, and 65 percent is boosted.
The five groups representing the Parliament protest - Convoy 2022 NZ, Freedom Alliance, New Zealand Doctors Speaking Out with Science, Outdoors & Freedom Movement, The Freedom and Rights Coalition and Voices for Freedom - want vaccine mandates removed.
COVID-19 vaccination is mandatory for workers across several sectors: border, health, education, police, Defence Force, Corrections, Fire and Emergency, and close contact businesses that operate vaccine certificates under the traffic light system.
A statement from the protest group said on Sunday: "We remain committed to speaking with senior government members to open dialogue about the COVID-19 Public Health Response Act and lifting of all mandates so that people can return to work and society."
With a Horizon Research snap poll showing 30 percent support for scrapping vaccine mandates, some politicians are also starting to question the need for them.
"Based on new evidence, it may be time to move on from Government vaccine mandates," ACT leader David Seymour said at the weekend, citing Ministry of Health data showing that in the eight days from February 11 to February 18, when Omicron cases took off, there were 347 new unvaccinated cases, 140 new partially vaccinated cases, and 7085 new fully vaccinated cases.
"Of course, there are far more vaccinated than unvaccinated people, so the raw numbers do not tell the full story," Seymour said.
"This data does not mean that vaccination is not useful or effective. Vaccination is still your best bet for staying out of hospital. But even strongly pro-vaccine people like me have to confront what new evidence says about infection rates."
Ardern says now is not the time to remove mandates, but she agreed with Ryan Bridge's suggestion that she explain the justification for them.
"The mandates and the role that they play, firstly, is that there is of course with vaccines a reduction in transmission as a result of being vaccinated, so your ability to pass it on. With Omicron, it's less than it was for Delta, but still some studies suggest about a 50 percent reduction," Ardern said.
"If you're working with vulnerable people, that is important, and it's important overall for an outbreak."
Ardern appeared to be referring to a Danish study which found that although fully vaccinated people were more likely to catch Omicron than the previous strain, they were less likely to spread it to others, while those who were boosted were even less likely to transmit it.
"The second reason mandates have been important is we still do have Delta in New Zealand, in fact, we're still seeing in hospitals cases of Delta, so I think we need to remember we're not dealing with what will be a mild to moderate illness for most New Zealanders," Ardern said.
"The third reason is just the significant reduction in hospitalisations. You're ten times less likely to end up in hospital if you're vaccinated. We want to make sure we don't overwhelm our hospitals and our healthcare.
"Those are some of the primary reasons why now, right when we're taking off, is not the time to remove them. But in the future, there is the possibility - absolute - to move away from them."
